Verifiable proof
ScoreProb historical accuracy
Results calculated only from certified predictions and settled matches. Each fixture is counted once using its latest certified pre-kickoff prediction.
1X2 accuracy by pick
Each percentage answers one question: when ScoreProb made Home, Draw or Away its highest 1X2 probability, how often was that pick correct?
Home pick
52.8%
n=2,500
Home selections
Draw pick
25.0%
n=32
Draw selections
Away pick
50.4%
n=1,119
Away selections
Accuracy by market
Metrics calculated with fixed, reproducible rules.
Correct when the highest-probability outcome matches Home, Draw or Away.
50% classification threshold against the settled goal total.
Yes/No classification at a 50% threshold against the settled result.
Evidence coverage
Accuracy uses only fixtures that can already be settled with verifiable results.
Settled coverage
77.6%
First settlement
2026-10-04
Latest settlement
2026-10-05
Larger samples generally produce more stable metrics. That is why ScoreProb shows sample sizes for country, league and outcome-specific accuracy.
Verified ROI
ROI requires bookmaker odds frozen before kickoff and bound to the certified prediction. That immutable odds history is not yet part of ScoreProb’s public contract.
ROI pending an immutable odds authority
ScoreProb does not turn its own probabilities into betting odds to manufacture ROI. Once frozen odds history exists, this page can publish bet count, selection policy, units staked, profit/loss and ROI.
Integrity rules
The latest certified pre-kickoff prediction is used for each fixture. A match is not double-counted, and predictions are not rewritten after the result.