ScoreProb
Second Division Qatar Round 6 2026

Al-Markhiya vs Al Waab

Al-Markhiya Home · Elo 1,529
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Waab Away · Elo 1,497
Grand Hamad Stadium, Doha Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Markhiya win
Al-Markhiya winPick
53.8%
Draw
23.2%
Al Waab win
23.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%

How much we know

Al-Markhiya history38 matches
Al Waab history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 14:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Al-Markhiya are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al-Markhiya are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,497. On rating alone Al-Markhiya would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Al-Markhiya score more

    1.45 goals a game over 38 matches for Al-Markhiya, against 1.24 over 37 for Al Waab.

  • Defences are close

    Al-Markhiya concede 1.24 a game, Al Waab 1.30.

  • Al-Markhiya games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Al-Markhiya matches, against 43% for Al Waab. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Markhiya
Al Waab
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1528.8
ELO
1496.9
38
ELO · Matches
37
1528.8
Current Team ELO
1496.9
1496.9
Current Opponent ELO
1528.8
31.88
Current ELO Difference
-31.88
0.55
Expected score
0.45
38
History Matches
37
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
52.68
Overperformance
49.88
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
37
1.61
PPG
1.41
44.7%
Win rate
40.5%
26.3%
Draw rate
18.9%
28.9%
Loss rate
40.5%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
18
1.60
PPG
1.61
45.0%
Win rate
44.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
27.8%
30.0%
Loss rate
27.8%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
20
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.24
71.1%
Scoring rate
78.4%
52.6%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.33
70.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
55.0%
BTTS rate
38.9%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
38
History Matches
37
1.45
Goals Mean
1.24
1.12
Goals Std
0.88
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
52.6%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
8.1%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.30
68.4%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.11
75.0%
Conceding rate
61.1%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
38
History Matches
37
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.18
Conceded Std
1.11
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
10.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
37
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.49
2.60
Stability score
4.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
37
16
Lead Matches
15
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.84
10
Trailing Matches
9
30.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.00
Rest days
71.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.18
Portability PPG Range
1.00
87.20
Portability Score
52.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.88
PPG0.20
GF0.20
GA-0.06
PPG0.00
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate7.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate14.8%
Scored 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-2.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate7.5%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate18.9%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.82
Portability Score34.47
Rest days2.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO31.88
Current Opponent ELO-31.88
Current ELO Difference63.76
Expected score0.09
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al-Markhiya

D
Qatar U232–2Al-Markhiya28 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Markhiya 45% · missed
W
Al Shamal II1–3Al-Markhiya14 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Markhiya 48% · hit
W
Al-Gharafa B0–3Al-Markhiya30 Aug · away
Pick: Al-Markhiya 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Waab

L
Al Waab0–1Al Kharaitiyat29 Oct · home
Pick: Al Waab 46% · missed
L
Al Waab0–1UMM Salal14 Oct · home
Pick: Al Waab 51% · missed
W
Al Shamal II0–2Al Waab31 Aug · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
W
Al Waab1–0Al Rayyan SC B25 Aug · home
Pick: Al Waab 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al-Markhiya and Al Waab meet in Second Division on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 14:15 UTC. The match is played at Grand Hamad Stadium, Doha. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Al-Markhiya win 53.8%, draw 23.2%, Al Waab win 23.0%. The pick is Al-Markhiya win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.8%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.