ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain Group 8 - 10 2026

Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino

Arandina Home · Elo 1,463
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
La Virgen del Camino Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arandina win
Arandina winPick
45.2%
Draw
27.9%
La Virgen del Camino win
26.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.7%
Under 2.555.3%

How much we know

Arandina history52 matches
La Virgen del Camino history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Arandina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,463 against 1,471. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.02 goals a game over 52 matches for Arandina, against 1.02 over 49 for La Virgen del Camino.

  • Defences are close

    Arandina concede 1.23 a game, La Virgen del Camino 1.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Arandina matches, against 35% for La Virgen del Camino. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arandina
La Virgen del Camino
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1463.0
ELO
1470.6
52
ELO · Matches
49
1463.0
Current Team ELO
1470.6
1470.6
Current Opponent ELO
1463.0
-7.59
Current ELO Difference
7.59
0.49
Expected score
0.51
52
History Matches
49
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
47.48
Overperformance
47.92
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
49
1.12
PPG
1.31
25.0%
Win rate
32.7%
36.5%
Draw rate
32.7%
38.5%
Loss rate
34.7%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
32.7%
Over 2.5 rate
34.7%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.4%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
1.31
PPG
1.29
30.8%
Win rate
37.5%
38.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
30.8%
Loss rate
45.8%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
34.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.02
61.5%
Scoring rate
67.3%
48.1%
BTTS rate
49.0%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.08
69.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
53.8%
BTTS rate
58.3%
52
History Matches
49
1.02
Goals Mean
1.02
0.99
Goals Std
1.02
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
22.4%
9.6%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.12
75.0%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.50
69.2%
Conceding rate
79.2%
52
History Matches
49
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.05
Conceded Std
1.02
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
49
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.43
1.52
Stability score
0.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
47
13
Lead Matches
8
53.8%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.83
15
Trailing Matches
16
46.7%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.8
Rest days
181.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.06
Portability PPG Range
0.20
94.76
Portability Score
83.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-7.59
PPG-0.19
GF0.00
GA0.11
PPG0.02
PPG1.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score1.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate27.9%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score11.09
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO-7.59
Current Opponent ELO7.59
Current ELO Difference-15.18
Expected score-0.02
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arandina

D
Guijuelo2–2Arandina1 Nov · away
Pick: Guijuelo 58% · missed
D
Arandina2–2Atlético Mansillés24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · hit
D
Bembibre1–1Arandina17 Oct · away
Pick: Arandina 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

La Virgen del Camino

W
La Virgen del Camino2–1Unionistas II31 Oct · home
Pick: La Virgen del Camino 41% · hit
D
La Virgen del Camino0–0Mirandés II24 Oct · home
Pick: Mirandés II 40% · missed
L
Guijuelo5–1La Virgen del Camino18 Oct · away
Pick: Guijuelo 59% · hit
L
Bembibre2–0La Virgen del Camino4 Oct · away
Pick: Bembibre 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arandina and La Virgen del Camino meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Arandina win 45.2%, draw 27.9%, La Virgen del Camino win 26.8%. The pick is Arandina win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.7%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.