ScoreProb
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico Quarter-finals 2026

Cancún vs Piratas

Cancún Home · Elo 1,542
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Piratas Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cancún win
Cancún winPick
49.9%
Draw
23.2%
Piratas win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.6%
No58.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.3%
Under 2.556.7%

How much we know

Cancún history47 matches
Piratas history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 1 d 18 h ahead
    4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cancún are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cancún are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,542 against 1,508. On rating alone Cancún would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Cancún score far more

    1.45 goals a game over 47 matches for Cancún, against 0.80 over 5 for Piratas.

  • Piratas concede fewer

    Cancún concede 1.06 a game, Piratas 0.60.

  • Cancún games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Cancún matches, against 20% for Piratas. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cancún
Piratas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.0
ELO
1507.5
47
ELO · Matches
5
1542.0
Current Team ELO
1507.5
1507.5
Current Opponent ELO
1542.0
34.50
Current ELO Difference
-34.50
0.55
Expected score
0.45
47
History Matches
5
0.05
Residual Mean
0.06
53.71
Overperformance
51.25
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
5
1.30
PPG
1.40
0.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
5
1.66
PPG
1.40
48.9%
Win rate
40.0%
19.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
31.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
68.1%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
46.8%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
3
1.81
PPG
1.33
53.8%
Win rate
33.3%
19.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
26.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
26
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
0.80
83.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
51.1%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.00
84.6%
Scoring rate
33.3%
46.2%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
75.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
47
History Matches
5
1.45
Goals Mean
0.80
1.27
Goals Std
1.17
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
40.0%
29.8%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.06
Goals against per game
0.60
63.8%
Conceding rate
40.0%
0.96
Goals against per game
0.67
57.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
47
History Matches
5
1.06
Conceded Mean
0.60
1.06
Conceded Std
0.80
29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
0.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
5
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.72
6.18
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
5
20
Lead Matches
0
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.92
Lead Points Retention
—
8
Trailing Matches
2
12.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
75.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
22
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
4
Current Competition Matches
5
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
4
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.31
Portability PPG Std
—
0.86
Portability PPG Range
—
61.84
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.50
PPG0.26
GF0.65
GA0.46
PPG0.10
PPG0.47
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches42
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.51
History Matches42
Goals Mean0.65
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate43.0%
Scored 2+ rate9.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.63
History Matches42
Conceded Mean0.46
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches42
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score2.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches42
Lead Matches20
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches42
First Half Goals For Mean0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.70
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.32
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match1.59
Current Team ELO34.50
Current Opponent ELO-34.50
Current ELO Difference69.01
Expected score0.10
History Matches42
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance2.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cancún

W
Cancún2–0CDS Tampico Madero1 Nov · home
Pick: Cancún 39% · hit
W
Tepatitlán0–4Cancún24 Oct · away
Pick: Cancún 39% · hit
D
Cancún1–1Venados FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Cancún 49% · missed
W
Cancún1–0Tapatío4 Oct · home
Pick: Cancún 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Piratas

D
Piratas1–1Tapatío1 Nov · home
Pick: Tapatío 35% · missed
W
Dorados0–5Piratas25 Oct · away
Pick: Dorados 54% · missed
W
Piratas3–0Tepatitlán18 Oct · home
Pick: Piratas 43% · hit
W
Piratas4–0Alebrijes de Oaxaca4 Oct · home
Pick: Piratas 47% · hit
D
Leones Negros UDG1–1Piratas30 Aug · away
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 62% · missed

About this match

Cancún and Piratas meet in Liga de Expansión MX on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Cancún win 49.9%, draw 23.2%, Piratas win 26.9%. The pick is Cancún win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.3%. Both teams to score: 41.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.