ScoreProb
Primera C Argentina Quarter-finals 2026

Canuelas vs Central Cordoba

Canuelas Home · Elo 1,534
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Central Cordoba Away · Elo 1,541
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Canuelas win
Canuelas winPick
39.7%
Draw
33.3%
Central Cordoba win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.532.7%
Under 2.567.3%

How much we know

Canuelas history54 matches
Central Cordoba history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Canuelas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,534 against 1,541. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Central Cordoba score more

    1.00 goals a game over 54 matches for Canuelas, against 1.21 over 53 for Central Cordoba.

  • Defences are close

    Canuelas concede 0.83 a game, Central Cordoba 0.87.

  • Central Cordoba games more often go over 2.5 goals

    28% of Canuelas matches, against 43% for Central Cordoba. The model puts this match at 33% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Canuelas
Central Cordoba
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.6
ELO
1540.6
54
ELO · Matches
53
1533.6
Current Team ELO
1540.6
1540.6
Current Opponent ELO
1533.6
-7.03
Current ELO Difference
7.03
0.49
Expected score
0.51
54
History Matches
53
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.28
Overperformance
52.01
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
53
1.43
PPG
1.62
35.2%
Win rate
45.3%
37.0%
Draw rate
26.4%
27.8%
Loss rate
28.3%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
58.5%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
43.4%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.1%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
29
1.52
PPG
1.55
40.7%
Win rate
41.4%
29.6%
Draw rate
31.0%
29.6%
Loss rate
27.6%
51.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.8%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
27
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.21
66.7%
Scoring rate
64.2%
42.6%
BTTS rate
45.3%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.21
63.0%
Scoring rate
69.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
51.7%
1.08
Goals for per game
0.92
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
54
History Matches
53
1.00
Goals Mean
1.21
0.92
Goals Std
1.12
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
64.2%
25.9%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.83
Goals against per game
0.87
57.4%
Conceding rate
67.9%
0.78
Goals against per game
0.93
55.6%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
0.83
54.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
53
0.83
Conceded Mean
0.87
0.92
Conceded Std
0.75
18.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.1%
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.8%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.8%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
53
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.30
Goal Difference Std
1.33
0.67
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
52
13
Lead Matches
17
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
94.1%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.96
10
Trailing Matches
10
10.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
1.71
PPG
1.33
45.8%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
20.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
41.7%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
8.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.95
24
Current Competition Matches
24
1.71
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.08
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.51
Portability PPG Range
0.56
66.30
Portability Score
64.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-7.03
PPG-0.20
GF-0.21
GA-0.03
PPG0.38
PPG-0.03
PPG-0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate2.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-2.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.29
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score2.01
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-7.03
Current Opponent ELO7.03
Current ELO Difference-14.06
Expected score-0.02
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Canuelas

W
Canuelas1–0Lugano25 Oct · home
Pick: Canuelas 42% · hit
W
Lugano0–1Canuelas19 Oct · away
Pick: Lugano 36% · missed
W
Canuelas4–0Central Ballester12 Oct · home
Pick: Canuelas 50% · hit
W
General Lamadrid0–2Canuelas31 Aug · away
Pick: General Lamadrid 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Central Cordoba

L
Deportivo Español1–0Central Cordoba12 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
W
Central Cordoba1–0Yupanqui4 Oct · home
Pick: Central Cordoba 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Canuelas and Central Cordoba meet in Primera C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Canuelas win 39.7%, draw 33.3%, Central Cordoba win 27.0%. The pick is Canuelas win. Over 2.5 goals: 32.7%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.