ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

Chatham Town vs Burgess Hill Town

Chatham Town Home · Elo 1,591
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Burgess Hill Town Away · Elo 1,539
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chatham Town win
Chatham Town winPick
58.2%
Draw
23.5%
Burgess Hill Town win
18.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Chatham Town history79 matches
Burgess Hill Town history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Chatham Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chatham Town are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,539. On rating alone Chatham Town would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.87 goals a game over 79 matches for Chatham Town, against 1.82 over 67 for Burgess Hill Town.

  • Chatham Town concede fewer

    Chatham Town concede 0.91 a game, Burgess Hill Town 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Chatham Town matches, against 66% for Burgess Hill Town. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chatham Town
Burgess Hill Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1591.4
ELO
1539.0
79
ELO · Matches
67
1591.4
Current Team ELO
1539.0
1539.0
Current Opponent ELO
1591.4
52.40
Current ELO Difference
-52.40
0.57
Expected score
0.43
79
History Matches
67
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
54.67
Overperformance
52.47
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
67
1.90
PPG
1.61
58.2%
Win rate
46.3%
15.2%
Draw rate
22.4%
26.6%
Loss rate
31.3%
70.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
58.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
32
1.90
PPG
1.56
61.0%
Win rate
43.8%
7.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
31.7%
Loss rate
31.3%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
36.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
41
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
1.82
81.0%
Scoring rate
83.6%
41.8%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.78
80.5%
Scoring rate
78.1%
48.8%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
79
History Matches
67
1.87
Goals Mean
1.82
1.42
Goals Std
1.40
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
54.4%
Scored 2+ rate
52.2%
35.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.91
Goals against per game
1.58
55.7%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.63
65.9%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
79
History Matches
67
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.06
Conceded Std
1.26
21.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.3%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.4%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
67
0.87
Result entropy
0.96
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.97
13.22
Stability score
3.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
65
39
Lead Matches
29
87.2%
Lead Win Rate
75.9%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
16
20.0%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
69
Normal Rest History Matches
53
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
5
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.25
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.25
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.93
Portability PPG Range
0.75
59.95
Portability Score
62.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO52.40
PPG0.29
GF0.05
GA-0.67
PPG1.00
PPG0.34
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.67
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score9.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.94
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate11.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-2.05
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO52.40
Current Opponent ELO-52.40
Current ELO Difference104.8
Expected score0.15
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chatham Town

L
Cheshunt3–1Chatham Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Chatham Town 56% · missed
L
Enfield Town4–0Chatham Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Enfield Town 36% · hit
W
Chatham Town3–2Welling United24 Oct · home
Pick: Chatham Town 46% · hit
W
Dulwich Hamlet0–4Chatham Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Chatham Town 35% · hit
L
Aveley1–0Chatham Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Chatham Town 40% · missed

Burgess Hill Town

D
Wingate & Finchley1–1Burgess Hill Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 39% · missed
L
Burgess Hill Town0–6Enfield Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Enfield Town 44% · hit
L
St Albans City3–1Burgess Hill Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 40% · missed
W
Whyteleafe2–3Burgess Hill Town21 Oct · away
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 70% · hit
L
Welling United4–2Burgess Hill Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Welling United 55% · hit

About this match

Chatham Town and Burgess Hill Town meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chatham Town win 58.2%, draw 23.5%, Burgess Hill Town win 18.2%. The pick is Chatham Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.