ScoreProb
First NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Dugopolje vs Dubrava Zagreb

Dugopolje Home · Elo 1,539
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dubrava Zagreb Away · Elo 1,488
Stadion Hrvatski Vitezovi, Dugopolje Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dugopolje win
Dugopolje winPick
53.0%
Draw
24.6%
Dubrava Zagreb win
22.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Dugopolje history52 matches
Dubrava Zagreb history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dugopolje are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dugopolje are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,488. On rating alone Dugopolje would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 52 matches for Dugopolje, against 1.17 over 58 for Dubrava Zagreb.

  • Defences are close

    Dugopolje concede 1.33 a game, Dubrava Zagreb 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Dugopolje matches, against 53% for Dubrava Zagreb. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dugopolje
Dubrava Zagreb
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.7
ELO
1488.5
52
ELO · Matches
58
1538.7
Current Team ELO
1488.5
1488.5
Current Opponent ELO
1538.7
50.23
Current ELO Difference
-50.23
0.57
Expected score
0.43
52
History Matches
58
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
53.22
Overperformance
49.13
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
58
1.48
PPG
1.24
42.3%
Win rate
34.5%
21.2%
Draw rate
20.7%
36.5%
Loss rate
44.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.4%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
2.04
PPG
0.87
60.7%
Win rate
20.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
26.7%
17.9%
Loss rate
53.3%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.17
71.2%
Scoring rate
70.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.4%
1.71
Goals for per game
0.90
85.7%
Scoring rate
63.3%
57.1%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
58
1.27
Goals Mean
1.17
1.15
Goals Std
1.12
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.7%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
29.3%
13.5%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.47
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.63
64.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
58
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.17
Conceded Std
1.21
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.6%
21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
58
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.67
3.48
Stability score
4.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
57
13
Lead Matches
13
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
23
29.4%
Non-loss rate
39.1%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
17.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
77.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
24
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.64
Portability PPG Range
0.67
42.70
Portability Score
64.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO50.23
PPG0.24
GF0.10
GA-0.14
PPG1.00
PPG1.17
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate0.5%
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.49
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-0.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.39
Portability PPG Range0.97
Portability Score-21.46
Rest days0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO50.23
Current Opponent ELO-50.23
Current ELO Difference100.5
Expected score0.14
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dugopolje

L
Hrvace3–0Dugopolje31 Oct · away
Pick: Dugopolje 40% · missed
L
Dugopolje1–2Opatija24 Oct · home
Pick: Dugopolje 38% · missed
D
Jadran LP4–4Dugopolje17 Oct · away
Pick: Jadran LP 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dubrava Zagreb

D
Dubrava Zagreb2–2Sesvete30 Oct · home
Pick: Sesvete 41% · missed
L
Dubrava Zagreb1–2Kustosija23 Oct · home
Pick: Kustosija 36% · hit
L
Vukovar3–2Dubrava Zagreb17 Oct · away
Pick: Vukovar 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dugopolje and Dubrava Zagreb meet in First NL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Hrvatski Vitezovi, Dugopolje. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Dugopolje win 53.0%, draw 24.6%, Dubrava Zagreb win 22.4%. The pick is Dugopolje win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.