ScoreProb
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico Quarter-finals 2026

Durango vs Leones Negros UDG

Durango Home · Elo 1,613
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leones Negros UDG Away · Elo 1,496
Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leones Negros UDG win
Durango win
31.8%
Draw
23.5%
Leones Negros UDG winPick
44.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

Durango history41 matches
Leones Negros UDG history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 1 d 20 h ahead
    4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 03:05 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Leones Negros UDG are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Durango are rated 117 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,496. On rating alone Durango would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Durango score more

    1.95 goals a game over 41 matches for Durango, against 1.43 over 54 for Leones Negros UDG.

  • Durango concede fewer

    Durango concede 0.80 a game, Leones Negros UDG 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Durango matches, against 56% for Leones Negros UDG. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Durango
Leones Negros UDG
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1613.2
ELO
1496.4
41
ELO · Matches
54
1613.2
Current Team ELO
1496.4
1496.4
Current Opponent ELO
1613.2
116.7
Current ELO Difference
-116.7
0.66
Expected score
0.34
41
History Matches
54
0.14
Residual Mean
0.00
59.44
Overperformance
49.98
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
54
2.10
PPG
1.39
61.0%
Win rate
40.7%
26.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
12.2%
Loss rate
42.6%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.5%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
26
2.00
PPG
0.96
59.1%
Win rate
26.9%
22.7%
Draw rate
15.4%
18.2%
Loss rate
57.7%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
22
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.95
Goals for per game
1.43
78.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
48.8%
BTTS rate
59.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.12
81.8%
Scoring rate
69.2%
59.1%
BTTS rate
61.5%
0.60
Goals for per game
2.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
41
History Matches
54
1.95
Goals Mean
1.43
1.65
Goals Std
1.23
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
56.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.0%
29.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
1.44
56.1%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.77
68.2%
Conceding rate
88.5%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
41
History Matches
54
0.80
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.86
Conceded Std
1.18
19.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
54
0.83
Result entropy
0.94
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.75
17.06
Stability score
6.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
54
16
Lead Matches
17
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.82
6
Trailing Matches
18
66.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.09
Rest days
75.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
18
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
2.40
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.40
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.11
Portability PPG Range
1.29
51.71
Portability Score
48.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO116.7
PPG0.71
GF0.53
GA-0.64
PPG-1.20
PPG1.04
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate0.3%
Scored 2+ rate19.1%
Scored 3+ rate12.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.64
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score10.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate4.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate44.4%
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score3.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.54
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO116.7
Current Opponent ELO-116.7
Current ELO Difference233.4
Expected score0.32
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance9.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Durango

W
Durango3–1Monarcas1 Nov · home
Pick: Monarcas 44% · missed
L
Venados FC3–2Durango24 Oct · away
Pick: Venados FC 46% · hit
W
Durango5–0Tapatío18 Oct · home
Pick: Tapatío 39% · missed
W
Durango4–2Mineros de Zacatecas4 Oct · home
Pick: Mineros de Zacatecas 44% · missed
D
Correcaminos Uat0–0Durango29 Aug · away
Pick: Correcaminos Uat 46% · missed

Leones Negros UDG

W
Leones Negros UDG3–1Tepatitlán1 Nov · home
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 59% · hit
W
Mineros de Zacatecas0–2Leones Negros UDG25 Oct · away
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 38% · hit
L
Leones Negros UDG1–2Alebrijes de Oaxaca18 Oct · home
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 66% · missed
W
Leones Negros UDG6–3Dorados4 Oct · home
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 53% · hit
D
Leones Negros UDG1–1Piratas30 Aug · home
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 62% · missed

About this match

Durango and Leones Negros UDG meet in Liga de Expansión MX on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 03:05 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Durango win 31.8%, draw 23.5%, Leones Negros UDG win 44.7%. The pick is Leones Negros UDG win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.