ScoreProb
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran Round 12 2026

Gol Gohar vs ZOB Ahan

Gol Gohar Home · Elo 1,561
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
ZOB Ahan Away · Elo 1,470
Gol Gohar Sport Complex, Sirjan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gol Gohar win
Gol Gohar winPick
57.9%
Draw
27.0%
ZOB Ahan win
15.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes39.2%
No60.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.533.1%
Under 2.566.9%

How much we know

Gol Gohar history44 matches
ZOB Ahan history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Gol Gohar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gol Gohar are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,470. On rating alone Gol Gohar would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Gol Gohar score more

    0.98 goals a game over 44 matches for Gol Gohar, against 0.85 over 39 for ZOB Ahan.

  • Gol Gohar concede fewer

    Gol Gohar concede 0.77 a game, ZOB Ahan 0.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    25% of Gol Gohar matches, against 28% for ZOB Ahan. The model puts this match at 33% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gol Gohar
ZOB Ahan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.2
ELO
1469.9
44
ELO · Matches
39
1561.2
Current Team ELO
1469.9
1469.9
Current Opponent ELO
1561.2
91.26
Current ELO Difference
-91.26
0.63
Expected score
0.37
44
History Matches
39
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.05
55.32
Overperformance
46.99
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
1.10
Goals for per game
0.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
39
1.66
PPG
1.08
45.5%
Win rate
20.5%
29.5%
Draw rate
46.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.4%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
28.2%
11.4%
Over 3.5 rate
10.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
21
1.79
PPG
0.81
50.0%
Win rate
14.3%
29.2%
Draw rate
38.1%
20.8%
Loss rate
47.6%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
20.8%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
8.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
24
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
0.85
65.9%
Scoring rate
48.7%
31.8%
BTTS rate
35.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.81
62.5%
Scoring rate
42.9%
20.8%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
44
History Matches
39
0.98
Goals Mean
0.85
0.89
Goals Std
1.03
65.9%
Scored 1+ rate
48.7%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.6%
6.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.77
Goals against per game
0.97
47.7%
Conceding rate
61.5%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.29
37.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
44
History Matches
39
0.77
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.17
Conceded Std
1.00
13.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.6%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
52.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
51.3%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
52.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
51.3%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
52.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
39
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.26
3.04
Stability score
4.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
39
17
Lead Matches
12
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.69
5
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.84
Rest days
75.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
0.67
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.87
57.27
Portability Score
57.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO91.26
PPG0.58
GF0.13
GA-0.20
PPG1.67
PPG0.98
PPG1.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate17.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.75
History Matches5
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-1.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.98
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate24.0%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-0.34
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.74
Current Team ELO91.26
Current Opponent ELO-91.26
Current ELO Difference182.5
Expected score0.26
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gol Gohar

D
Gol Gohar0–0Arkadag28 Oct · home
Pick: Arkadag 38% · missed
L
Gol Gohar0–1Kheybar Khorramabad23 Oct · home
Pick: Gol Gohar 53% · missed
L
Esteghlal FC1–0Gol Gohar19 Oct · away
Pick: Esteghlal FC 53% · hit
L
Muharraq2–0Gol Gohar14 Oct · away
Pick: Muharraq 53% · hit
W
Gol Gohar3–0Esteghlal Khuzestan8 Oct · home
Pick: Gol Gohar 69% · hit

ZOB Ahan

D
ZOB Ahan0–0Esteghlal Khuzestan30 Oct · home
Pick: ZOB Ahan 51% · missed
D
Aluminium Arak0–0ZOB Ahan23 Oct · away
Pick: Aluminium Arak 44% · missed
L
ZOB Ahan1–2Chadormalu SC18 Oct · home
Pick: ZOB Ahan 50% · missed
L
ZOB Ahan1–2Sepahan FC13 Oct · home
Pick: ZOB Ahan 38% · missed
D
Nassaji Mazandaran1–1ZOB Ahan8 Oct · away
Pick: Nassaji Mazandaran 45% · missed

About this match

Gol Gohar and ZOB Ahan meet in Persian Gulf Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:45 UTC. The match is played at Gol Gohar Sport Complex, Sirjan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gol Gohar win 57.9%, draw 27.0%, ZOB Ahan win 15.0%. The pick is Gol Gohar win. Over 2.5 goals: 33.1%. Both teams to score: 39.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.