ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 6 2026

JSK vs Céleste

JSK Home · Elo 1,624
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Céleste Away · Elo 1,479
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: JSK win
JSK winPick
50.7%
Draw
31.5%
Céleste win
17.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.3%
Under 2.559.7%

How much we know

JSK history59 matches
Céleste history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why JSK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • JSK are rated 146 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,624 against 1,479. On rating alone JSK would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.25 goals a game over 59 matches for JSK, against 1.15 over 41 for Céleste.

  • JSK concede fewer

    JSK concede 0.73 a game, Céleste 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    34% of JSK matches, against 34% for Céleste. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
JSK
Céleste
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1624.4
ELO
1478.6
59
ELO · Matches
41
1624.4
Current Team ELO
1478.6
1478.6
Current Opponent ELO
1624.4
145.8
Current ELO Difference
-145.8
0.70
Expected score
0.30
59
History Matches
41
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.02
57.39
Overperformance
48.49
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.30
1.40
Goals for per game
0.70
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
41
1.90
PPG
1.20
54.2%
Win rate
29.3%
27.1%
Draw rate
31.7%
18.6%
Loss rate
39.0%
50.8%
Over 1.5 rate
58.5%
33.9%
Over 2.5 rate
34.1%
16.9%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
20
2.21
PPG
1.25
64.3%
Win rate
30.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
35.0%
7.1%
Loss rate
35.0%
53.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
35.0%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
28
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.15
78.0%
Scoring rate
56.1%
45.8%
BTTS rate
36.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.25
82.1%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
45.0%
59
History Matches
41
1.25
Goals Mean
1.15
1.07
Goals Std
1.47
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
56.1%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.3%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.73
Goals against per game
1.00
55.9%
Conceding rate
63.4%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.05
50.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
59
History Matches
41
0.73
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.76
Conceded Std
0.96
15.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
41
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.14
Goal Difference Std
1.86
9.08
Stability score
0.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
40
16
Lead Matches
8
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.75
10
Trailing Matches
9
60.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
141.1
Rest days
141.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
28
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
20
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.53
Portability PPG Range
0.84
65.37
Portability Score
54.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO145.8
PPG0.70
GF0.11
GA-0.27
PPG0.96
PPG1.00
PPG1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate21.9%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.71
Stability score8.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.21
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate60.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.31
Portability Score11.16
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.65
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.88
Current Team ELO145.8
Current Opponent ELO-145.8
Current ELO Difference291.5
Expected score0.40
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

JSK

L
JSK1–2Maniema Union29 Oct · home
Pick: Maniema Union 34% · hit
W
Novakin1–2JSK24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 34% · missed
L
JSK0–1Étoile du Congo20 Oct · home
Pick: JSK 67% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Céleste

W
Céleste2–1Étoile du Congo30 Oct · home
Pick: Céleste 52% · hit
D
FC Renaissance0–0Céleste25 Oct · away
Pick: Céleste 39% · missed
D
Céleste1–1FC Mk de Kinshasa20 Oct · home
Pick: Céleste 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

JSK and Céleste meet in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: JSK win 50.7%, draw 31.5%, Céleste win 17.8%. The pick is JSK win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.3%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.