ScoreProb
Premier League Uganda Round 3 2026

Kitara vs URA

Kitara Home · Elo 1,567
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
URA Away · Elo 1,494
Hoima City Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kitara win
Kitara winPick
45.2%
Draw
32.4%
URA win
22.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.6%
No55.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.0%
Under 2.564.0%

How much we know

Kitara history44 matches
URA history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kitara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kitara are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,567 against 1,494. On rating alone Kitara would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Kitara score more

    1.30 goals a game over 44 matches for Kitara, against 1.14 over 44 for URA.

  • Kitara concede fewer

    Kitara concede 0.68 a game, URA 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    27% of Kitara matches, against 34% for URA. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kitara
URA
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.4
ELO
1493.6
44
ELO · Matches
44
1567.4
Current Team ELO
1493.6
1493.6
Current Opponent ELO
1567.4
73.80
Current ELO Difference
-73.80
0.60
Expected score
0.40
44
History Matches
44
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
55.18
Overperformance
49.82
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
44
1.73
PPG
1.27
47.7%
Win rate
29.5%
29.5%
Draw rate
38.6%
22.7%
Loss rate
31.8%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.8%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.1%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
21
2.09
PPG
0.67
59.1%
Win rate
9.5%
31.8%
Draw rate
38.1%
9.1%
Loss rate
52.4%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
47.6%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
4.8%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
22
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.30
Goals for per game
1.14
68.2%
Scoring rate
56.8%
31.8%
BTTS rate
38.6%
1.55
Goals for per game
0.48
77.3%
Scoring rate
38.1%
27.3%
BTTS rate
28.6%
44
History Matches
44
1.30
Goals Mean
1.14
1.34
Goals Std
1.53
68.2%
Scored 1+ rate
56.8%
34.1%
Scored 2+ rate
22.7%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
0.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.68
Goals against per game
0.98
50.0%
Conceding rate
61.4%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.05
36.4%
Conceding rate
61.9%
44
History Matches
44
0.68
Conceded Mean
0.98
0.82
Conceded Std
0.97
13.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
63.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
61.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
63.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
61.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
44
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.68
4.43
Stability score
0.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
44
20
Lead Matches
13
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.85
6
Trailing Matches
8
33.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
169.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
20
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.75
77.26
Portability Score
57.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO73.80
PPG0.45
GF0.16
GA-0.30
PPG1.42
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate25.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate11.4%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score3.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate13.1%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score20.20
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.30
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.88
Current Team ELO73.80
Current Opponent ELO-73.80
Current ELO Difference147.6
Expected score0.21
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kitara

D
Police1–1Kitara3 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 34% · hit
W
UPDF0–1Kitara31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
L
Al Ahly4–0Kitara25 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ahly 65% · hit
L
Kitara1–2Al Ahly17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ahly 45% · hit
W
Kitara1–0Kigezi HomeBoyz7 Oct · home
Pick: Kitara 67% · hit

URA

W
URA1–0Vipers31 Oct · home
Pick: Vipers 49% · missed
W
UPDF0–1URA27 Oct · away
Pick: UPDF 36% · missed
D
URA0–0Entebbe UPPC15 Oct · home
Pick: URA 52% · missed
W
Maroons1–2URA30 Aug · away
Pick: Maroons 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kitara and URA meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Hoima City Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kitara win 45.2%, draw 32.4%, URA win 22.4%. The pick is Kitara win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.0%. Both teams to score: 44.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.