ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone C Italy Group C - 11 2026

LME vs Virtus Bolzano

LME Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Virtus Bolzano Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: LME win
LME winPick
49.9%
Draw
20.2%
Virtus Bolzano win
29.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%

How much we know

LME history0 matches
Virtus Bolzano history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why LME are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
LME
Virtus Bolzano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.0
ELO
1491.5
0
ELO · Matches
1
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1491.5
1491.5
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
8.52
Current ELO Difference
-8.52
0.51
Expected score
0.49
0
History Matches
1
—
Residual Mean
-0.52
—
Overperformance
47.53
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.52
Recent form16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Recent 10 Goals StdRecent 10 Conceded StdRecent 10 Goal Difference Std
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Goals against per game
5.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Goals against per game
5.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
5.00
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
Venue performance10 signals
100
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rateGoals Std
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Scoring rate
0.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Scoring rate
0.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
0
History Matches
1
—
Goals Mean
0.00
—
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
—
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
—
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rateConceded Std
—
Goals against per game
5.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
—
Goals against per game
5.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
0
History Matches
1
—
Conceded Mean
5.00
—
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
5.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal Difference Std
0
History Matches
1
—
Result entropy
0.00
—
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Lead Win RateLead Points Retention
0
Eligible Matches
1
0
Lead Matches
0
0
Trailing Matches
1
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
3.00
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
105.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0
Long Rest History Matches
0
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
0
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO8.52
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
History Matches-1
History Matches-1
History Matches-1
History Matches-1
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches0
Trailing Matches-1
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches0
Current Team ELO8.52
Current Opponent ELO-8.52
Current ELO Difference17.04
Expected score0.02
History Matches-1

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

LME

L
Mestre2–0LME1 Nov · away
Pick: Mestre 65% · hit
D
LME1–1Legnago Salus25 Oct · home
Pick: Legnago Salus 35% · missed
L
Este1–0LME18 Oct · away
Pick: Este 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Virtus Bolzano

D
Virtus Bolzano0–0FC Obermais1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Obermais 50% · missed
L
Cjarlins Muzane3–2Virtus Bolzano25 Oct · away
Pick: Cjarlins Muzane 78% · hit
W
Virtus Bolzano2–1Bassano Virtus18 Oct · home
Pick: Bassano Virtus 49% · missed
L
Virtus Bolzano1–3Calvi Noale4 Oct · home
Pick: Calvi Noale 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

LME and Virtus Bolzano meet in Serie D - Girone C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: LME win 49.9%, draw 20.2%, Virtus Bolzano win 29.9%. The pick is LME win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.9%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.