ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II

Mérida AD Home · Elo 1,495
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Athletic Club II Away · Elo 1,529
Estadio Romano Jose Fouto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Athletic Club II win
Mérida AD win
30.0%
Draw
28.0%
Athletic Club II winPick
42.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

Mérida AD history65 matches
Athletic Club II history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Athletic Club II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Athletic Club II are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,495. On rating alone Athletic Club II would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.22 goals a game over 65 matches for Mérida AD, against 1.22 over 68 for Athletic Club II.

  • Athletic Club II concede fewer

    Mérida AD concede 1.45 a game, Athletic Club II 1.21.

  • Mérida AD games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Mérida AD matches, against 44% for Athletic Club II. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mérida AD
Athletic Club II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.2
ELO
1529.5
65
ELO · Matches
68
1495.2
Current Team ELO
1529.5
1529.5
Current Opponent ELO
1495.2
-34.27
Current ELO Difference
34.27
0.45
Expected score
0.55
65
History Matches
68
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.36
Overperformance
51.22
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
0.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
68
1.35
PPG
1.47
36.9%
Win rate
41.2%
24.6%
Draw rate
23.5%
38.5%
Loss rate
35.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
36
1.81
PPG
1.31
51.6%
Win rate
36.1%
25.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
22.6%
Loss rate
41.7%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
31
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
1.22
72.3%
Scoring rate
79.4%
52.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.19
80.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
54.8%
BTTS rate
52.8%
65
History Matches
68
1.22
Goals Mean
1.22
1.02
Goals Std
0.92
72.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
35.4%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.4%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.45
Goals against per game
1.21
73.8%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.42
64.5%
Conceding rate
69.4%
65
History Matches
68
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.22
Conceded Std
1.28
43.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.58
1.65
Stability score
2.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
68
21
Lead Matches
17
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.73
21
Trailing Matches
12
23.8%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.97
Rest days
82.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
28
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.86
Portability PPG Range
2.25
57.97
Portability Score
39.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-34.27
PPG-0.12
GF-0.01
GA0.24
PPG0.50
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate9.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-0.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate19.9%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate15.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.39
Portability PPG Range-1.39
Portability Score18.03
Rest days3.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO-34.27
Current Opponent ELO34.27
Current ELO Difference-68.55
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mérida AD

L
Lugo2–1Mérida AD1 Nov · away
Pick: Mérida AD 40% · missed
D
Mérida AD0–0CD Coria25 Oct · home
Pick: Mérida AD 46% · missed
W
Arenas Getxo0–4Mérida AD18 Oct · away
Pick: Mérida AD 39% · hit
W
Mérida AD2–0Cacereño4 Oct · home
Pick: Mérida AD 46% · hit
W
Mérida AD1–0Deportivo La Coruña II29 Aug · home
Pick: Mérida AD 41% · hit

Athletic Club II

W
Athletic Club II3–1Cacereño31 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Club II 50% · hit
L
Unionistas de Salamanca2–1Athletic Club II24 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club II 39% · missed
L
CD Coria2–1Athletic Club II18 Oct · away
Pick: CD Coria 38% · hit
L
Athletic Club II1–3Extremadura 19244 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Club II 45% · missed
D
Zamora1–1Athletic Club II29 Aug · away
Pick: Athletic Club II 38% · missed

About this match

Mérida AD and Athletic Club II meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mérida AD win 30.0%, draw 28.0%, Athletic Club II win 42.0%. The pick is Athletic Club II win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.