ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone C Italy Group C - 11 2026

Mestre vs Legnago Salus

Mestre Home · Elo 1,559
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Legnago Salus Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mestre win
Mestre winPick
47.9%
Draw
28.4%
Legnago Salus win
23.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.3%
Under 2.557.7%

How much we know

Mestre history55 matches
Legnago Salus history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mestre are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,559 against 1,564. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Legnago Salus score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 55 matches for Mestre, against 1.63 over 51 for Legnago Salus.

  • Mestre concede fewer

    Mestre concede 0.75 a game, Legnago Salus 1.20.

  • Legnago Salus games more often go over 2.5 goals

    25% of Mestre matches, against 59% for Legnago Salus. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mestre
Legnago Salus
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.6
ELO
1563.6
55
ELO · Matches
51
1558.6
Current Team ELO
1563.6
1563.6
Current Opponent ELO
1558.6
-4.93
Current ELO Difference
4.93
0.49
Expected score
0.51
55
History Matches
51
0.05
Residual Mean
0.07
53.35
Overperformance
54.80
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
51
1.71
PPG
1.61
45.5%
Win rate
45.1%
34.5%
Draw rate
25.5%
20.0%
Loss rate
29.4%
45.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
25.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
14.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
2.04
PPG
2.00
57.7%
Win rate
58.3%
30.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
11.5%
Loss rate
16.7%
53.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
1.63
67.3%
Scoring rate
86.3%
36.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.96
84.6%
Scoring rate
87.5%
42.3%
BTTS rate
62.5%
55
History Matches
51
1.00
Goals Mean
1.63
0.91
Goals Std
1.20
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
23.6%
Scored 2+ rate
49.0%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.7%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.75
Goals against per game
1.20
50.9%
Conceding rate
74.5%
0.69
Goals against per game
0.92
46.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
51
0.75
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.94
Conceded Std
0.99
16.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.4%
3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
51
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.16
Goal Difference Std
1.68
4.66
Stability score
2.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
51
18
Lead Matches
15
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.87
10
Trailing Matches
15
40.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
93.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
41
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
10
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.63
Portability PPG Range
0.76
63.84
Portability Score
56.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-4.93
PPG0.10
GF-0.63
GA-0.45
PPG0.04
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate23.6%
Failed-to-score rate19.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.63
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate23.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.52
Stability score1.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score7.05
Rest days81.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-4.93
Current Opponent ELO4.93
Current ELO Difference-9.87
Expected score-0.01
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mestre

W
Mestre2–0LME1 Nov · home
Pick: Mestre 65% · hit
W
Triestina0–2Mestre25 Oct · away
Pick: Mestre 37% · hit
L
Mestre0–2Cjarlins Muzane18 Oct · home
Pick: Mestre 53% · missed
L
Mestre0–2Schio7 Oct · home
Pick: Mestre 65% · missed
D
Mestre1–1Campodarsego4 Oct · home
Pick: Mestre 53% · missed

Legnago Salus

D
Legnago Salus1–1Conegliano1 Nov · home
Pick: Legnago Salus 53% · missed
D
LME1–1Legnago Salus25 Oct · away
Pick: Legnago Salus 35% · missed
W
Legnago Salus3–1FC Obermais18 Oct · home
Pick: Legnago Salus 60% · hit
L
Legnago Salus0–2Bassano Virtus4 Oct · home
Pick: Legnago Salus 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mestre and Legnago Salus meet in Serie D - Girone C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mestre win 47.9%, draw 28.4%, Legnago Salus win 23.7%. The pick is Mestre win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.3%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.