ScoreProb
Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 6 2026

Najran vs Al Najoom

Najran Home · Elo 1,519
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Najoom Away · Elo 1,499
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Najran win
Najran winPick
42.8%
Draw
26.9%
Al Najoom win
30.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Najran history13 matches
Al Najoom history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 12:25 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Najran are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,519 against 1,499. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Najran score more

    1.54 goals a game over 13 matches for Najran, against 1.31 over 13 for Al Najoom.

  • Defences are close

    Najran concede 1.23 a game, Al Najoom 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Najran matches, against 46% for Al Najoom. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Najran
Al Najoom
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.8
ELO
1499.5
13
ELO · Matches
13
1518.8
Current Team ELO
1499.5
1499.5
Current Opponent ELO
1518.8
19.36
Current ELO Difference
-19.36
0.53
Expected score
0.47
13
History Matches
13
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
53.06
Overperformance
50.20
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
13
1.77
PPG
1.23
53.8%
Win rate
23.1%
15.4%
Draw rate
53.8%
30.8%
Loss rate
23.1%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
6
2.57
PPG
1.00
85.7%
Win rate
16.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
7
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.54
Goals for per game
1.31
76.9%
Scoring rate
76.9%
53.8%
BTTS rate
61.5%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.17
85.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
13
History Matches
13
1.54
Goals Mean
1.31
1.22
Goals Std
0.91
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
23.1%
Scored 3+ rate
7.7%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.31
76.9%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
71.4%
Conceding rate
83.3%
13
History Matches
13
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.31
0.89
Conceded Std
0.91
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
13
0.90
Result entropy
0.92
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.24
10.44
Stability score
8.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
10
4
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.56
4
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
213.0
Rest days
213.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
8
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.63
4
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.36
PPG0.54
GF0.23
GA-0.08
PPG1.57
PPG-0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score2.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate66.7%
Lead Points Retention0.44
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.13
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO19.36
Current Opponent ELO-19.36
Current ELO Difference38.71
Expected score0.06
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance2.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Najran

D
Najran1–1Jubbah3 Nov · home
Pick: Najran 42% · missed
L
Al Sharq2–0Najran29 Oct · away
Pick: Al Sharq 41% · hit
W
Jerash1–2Najran19 Oct · away
Pick: Najran 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Najoom

D
Al Najoom0–0Al Shoalah3 Nov · home
Pick: Al Najoom 42% · missed
L
Qilwah2–0Al Najoom29 Oct · away
Pick: Al Najoom 36% · missed
W
Al Najoom1–0Al Jubail24 Oct · home
Pick: Al Najoom 41% · hit
L
Al Entesar2–1Al Najoom17 Oct · away
Pick: Al Entesar 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Najran and Al Najoom meet in Division 2 on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 12:25 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Najran win 42.8%, draw 26.9%, Al Najoom win 30.3%. The pick is Najran win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.