ScoreProb
Regionalliga - North Austria North - 16 2026

Ried II vs Bad Schallerbach

Ried II Home · Elo 1,447
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bad Schallerbach Away · Elo 1,568
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bad Schallerbach win
Ried II win
34.4%
Draw
23.1%
Bad Schallerbach winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.4%
No38.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Ried II history49 matches
Bad Schallerbach history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bad Schallerbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bad Schallerbach are rated 120 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,447. On rating alone Bad Schallerbach would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Bad Schallerbach score more

    1.57 goals a game over 49 matches for Ried II, against 2.05 over 40 for Bad Schallerbach.

  • Bad Schallerbach concede fewer

    Ried II concede 2.29 a game, Bad Schallerbach 1.35.

  • Ried II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Ried II matches, against 60% for Bad Schallerbach. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ried II
Bad Schallerbach
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.2
ELO
1567.6
49
ELO · Matches
40
1447.2
Current Team ELO
1567.6
1567.6
Current Opponent ELO
1447.2
-120.4
Current ELO Difference
120.4
0.33
Expected score
0.67
49
History Matches
40
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.09
46.26
Overperformance
55.81
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.72
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.93
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
40
0.98
PPG
1.90
28.6%
Win rate
57.5%
12.2%
Draw rate
17.5%
59.2%
Loss rate
25.0%
89.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
77.6%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
55.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
19
1.04
PPG
1.79
29.2%
Win rate
52.6%
16.7%
Draw rate
21.1%
54.2%
Loss rate
26.3%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
24
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
2.05
79.6%
Scoring rate
82.5%
69.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.68
79.2%
Scoring rate
73.7%
70.8%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.80
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
40
1.57
Goals Mean
2.05
1.29
Goals Std
1.50
79.6%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
65.0%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.29
Goals against per game
1.35
87.8%
Conceding rate
65.0%
1.96
Goals against per game
1.37
91.7%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
40
2.29
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.43
Conceded Std
1.41
69.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
49.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
40
0.84
Result entropy
0.88
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.24
15.76
Stability score
11.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
39
11
Lead Matches
16
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.96
22
Trailing Matches
7
13.6%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.08
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
1.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.88
Rest days
78.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.06
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.68
5
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.32
Portability PPG Range
1.42
47.74
Portability Score
49.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-120.4
PPG-0.92
GF-0.48
GA0.94
PPG0.50
PPG-0.75
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.91
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.94
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate26.9%
Conceded 3+ rate36.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score4.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.44
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.35
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-1.46
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.34
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-120.4
Current Opponent ELO120.4
Current ELO Difference-240.8
Expected score-0.33
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ried II

D
Ried II0–0UFC Hallein31 Oct · home
Pick: Ried II 54% · missed
L
Ried II0–1Gurten18 Oct · home
Pick: Gurten 52% · hit
L
Ried II0–3Kuchl29 Aug · home
Pick: Kuchl 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bad Schallerbach

W
Wals-Grünau0–1Bad Schallerbach30 Oct · away
Pick: Wals-Grünau 45% · missed
D
Bad Schallerbach0–0Seekirchen23 Oct · home
Pick: Bad Schallerbach 56% · missed
D
TSV St. Johann1–1Bad Schallerbach16 Oct · away
Pick: Bad Schallerbach 57% · missed
D
Bad Schallerbach2–2Leonfelden29 Aug · home
Pick: Bad Schallerbach 71% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ried II and Bad Schallerbach meet in Regionalliga - North on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ried II win 34.4%, draw 23.1%, Bad Schallerbach win 42.5%. The pick is Bad Schallerbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 61.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.