ScoreProb
Premier League Armenia Round 13 2026

Syunik vs Gandzasar

Syunik Home · Elo 1,603
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gandzasar Away · Elo 1,382
Stadion Gandzasar, Kapan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Syunik win
Syunik winPick
44.7%
Draw
18.3%
Gandzasar win
37.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Syunik history53 matches
Gandzasar history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Syunik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Syunik are rated 222 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,382. On rating alone Syunik would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Syunik score far more

    2.26 goals a game over 53 matches for Syunik, against 0.88 over 50 for Gandzasar.

  • Syunik concede fewer

    Syunik concede 0.98 a game, Gandzasar 1.70.

  • Syunik games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Syunik matches, against 46% for Gandzasar. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Syunik
Gandzasar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1603.2
ELO
1381.6
53
ELO · Matches
50
1603.2
Current Team ELO
1381.6
1381.6
Current Opponent ELO
1603.2
221.5
Current ELO Difference
-221.5
0.78
Expected score
0.22
53
History Matches
50
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.11
56.27
Overperformance
42.27
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.30
1.50
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.39
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
50
2.06
PPG
0.72
64.2%
Win rate
18.0%
13.2%
Draw rate
18.0%
22.6%
Loss rate
64.0%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.0%
39.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.0%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
2.13
PPG
0.30
66.7%
Win rate
4.3%
12.5%
Draw rate
17.4%
20.8%
Loss rate
78.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.26
Goals for per game
0.88
88.7%
Scoring rate
48.0%
50.9%
BTTS rate
38.0%
2.46
Goals for per game
0.43
91.7%
Scoring rate
34.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
30.4%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.50
33.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
50
2.26
Goals Mean
0.88
1.91
Goals Std
1.46
88.7%
Scored 1+ rate
48.0%
52.8%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
35.8%
Scored 3+ rate
8.0%
2.46
Venue Goals Mean
0.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.70
56.6%
Conceding rate
84.0%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.78
54.2%
Conceding rate
87.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
50
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.70
1.14
Conceded Std
1.24
24.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.0%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.0%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
65.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
65.2%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
50
0.81
Result entropy
0.82
2.41
Goal Difference Std
2.02
19.13
Stability score
17.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
47
17
Lead Matches
12
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
41.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.53
9
Trailing Matches
21
0.0%
Non-loss rate
4.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
86.83
Rest days
78.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.75
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
0.75
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
3
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.15
2.45
Portability PPG Range
0.32
36.51
Portability Score
77.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO221.5
PPG1.34
GF1.38
GA-0.72
PPG-0.75
PPG1.82
PPG0.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate27.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate32.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.57
History Matches3
Goals Mean1.38
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate40.7%
Scored 2+ rate32.8%
Scored 3+ rate27.8%
Venue Goals Mean2.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.72
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate27.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score1.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.03
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate58.3%
Lead Points Retention0.47
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.92
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.72
Portability PPG Range2.13
Portability Score-40.86
Rest days8.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.11
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.74
Current Team ELO221.5
Current Opponent ELO-221.5
Current ELO Difference443.1
Expected score0.56
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance13.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Syunik

L
Syunik1–3FC Noah1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Noah 60% · hit
W
Syunik4–1BKMA25 Oct · home
Pick: Syunik 45% · hit
L
Alashkert5–1Syunik16 Oct · away
Pick: Alashkert 58% · hit
W
Syunik2–0Shirak12 Oct · home
Pick: Syunik 57% · hit
L
Sardarapat3–1Syunik31 Aug · away
Pick: Sardarapat 60% · hit

Gandzasar

L
Ararat-Armenia3–0Gandzasar1 Nov · away
Pick: Ararat-Armenia 81% · hit
L
Pyunik Yerevan3–0Gandzasar23 Oct · away
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 81% · hit
L
Gandzasar1–2Sardarapat16 Oct · home
Pick: Sardarapat 69% · hit
L
Gandzasar0–3BKMA30 Aug · home
Pick: Gandzasar 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Syunik and Gandzasar meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Gandzasar, Kapan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Syunik win 44.7%, draw 18.3%, Gandzasar win 37.0%. The pick is Syunik win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.