ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 17 2026

Veles vs KAMAZ

Veles Home · Elo 1,572
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
KAMAZ Away · Elo 1,477
Avangard Stadium, Domodedovo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Veles win
Veles winPick
48.7%
Draw
25.5%
KAMAZ win
25.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Veles history70 matches
KAMAZ history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Veles are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Veles are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,572 against 1,477. On rating alone Veles would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 70 matches for Veles, against 1.40 over 73 for KAMAZ.

  • Veles concede fewer

    Veles concede 0.97 a game, KAMAZ 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Veles matches, against 42% for KAMAZ. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Veles
KAMAZ
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1571.6
ELO
1476.8
70
ELO · Matches
73
1571.6
Current Team ELO
1476.8
1476.8
Current Opponent ELO
1571.6
94.79
Current ELO Difference
-94.79
0.63
Expected score
0.37
70
History Matches
73
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.90
Overperformance
48.71
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.37
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
73
1.66
PPG
1.40
48.6%
Win rate
34.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
37.0%
31.4%
Loss rate
28.8%
62.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.9%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.5%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.0%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
36
2.00
PPG
1.36
62.9%
Win rate
30.6%
11.4%
Draw rate
44.4%
25.7%
Loss rate
25.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.40
74.3%
Scoring rate
71.2%
42.9%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.25
88.6%
Scoring rate
63.9%
51.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
87.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
70
History Matches
73
1.39
Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Goals Std
1.47
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
34.2%
12.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
1.11
58.6%
Conceding rate
71.2%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.00
62.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.00
62.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
73
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.01
Conceded Std
0.97
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.4%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.0%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
73
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.64
5.66
Stability score
0.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
70
20
Lead Matches
23
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
18
31.3%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
49
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
19
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
8
Matches
8
2.25
PPG
0.25
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
8
Current Competition Matches
8
2.25
Current Competition PPG
0.25
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.63
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.95
56.13
Portability Score
44.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO94.79
PPG0.26
GF-0.01
GA-0.14
PPG2.00
PPG0.64
PPG2.00
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Conceded 2+ rate1.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score5.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.81
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate3.5%
Trailing Win Rate13.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-1.03
Portability Score11.74
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO94.79
Current Opponent ELO-94.79
Current ELO Difference189.6
Expected score0.27
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.45

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Veles

D
Veles1–1Spartak Kostroma30 Oct · home
Pick: Veles 39% · missed
L
Veles1–2Volga Ulyanovsk4 Oct · home
Pick: Veles 50% · missed
W
Tekstilshchik0–1Veles29 Aug · away
Pick: Tekstilshchik 37% · missed
W
Veles2–0Arsenal Tula24 Aug · home
Pick: Veles 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

KAMAZ

D
KAMAZ1–1Torpedo Moskva1 Nov · home
Pick: Torpedo Moskva 51% · missed
L
Arsenal Tula4–3KAMAZ24 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal Tula 39% · hit
W
Leningradets0–1KAMAZ29 Aug · away
Pick: Leningradets 43% · missed
L
KAMAZ2–3FC Sochi24 Aug · home
Pick: FC Sochi 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Veles and KAMAZ meet in First League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Avangard Stadium, Domodedovo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Veles win 48.7%, draw 25.5%, KAMAZ win 25.7%. The pick is Veles win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.