ScoreProb
Serie A Brazil Round 34 2026

Vitoria vs Fluminense

Vitoria Home · Elo 1,596
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fluminense Away · Elo 1,645
Barradao, Salvador Referee: R. Pereira Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fluminense win
Vitoria win
34.1%
Draw
30.6%
Fluminense winPick
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.3%
Under 2.555.7%

How much we know

Vitoria history97 matches
Fluminense history103 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Fluminense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fluminense are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,645 against 1,596. On rating alone Fluminense would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.26 goals a game over 97 matches for Vitoria, against 1.39 over 103 for Fluminense.

  • Fluminense concede fewer

    Vitoria concede 1.14 a game, Fluminense 0.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Vitoria matches, against 42% for Fluminense. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vitoria
Fluminense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1596.4
ELO
1645.4
97
ELO · Matches
103
1596.4
Current Team ELO
1645.4
1645.4
Current Opponent ELO
1596.4
-49.05
Current ELO Difference
49.05
0.43
Expected score
0.57
97
History Matches
103
0.05
Residual Mean
0.08
54.54
Overperformance
56.44
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
97
Matches
103
1.52
PPG
1.76
42.3%
Win rate
48.5%
24.7%
Draw rate
30.1%
33.0%
Loss rate
21.4%
67.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.9%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.4%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
51
Matches
47
2.02
PPG
1.17
60.8%
Win rate
25.5%
19.6%
Draw rate
40.4%
19.6%
Loss rate
34.0%
60.8%
Over 1.5 rate
63.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
31.9%
15.7%
Over 3.5 rate
14.9%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.06
51
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.39
69.1%
Scoring rate
74.8%
41.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.49
Goals for per game
0.94
78.4%
Scoring rate
59.6%
35.3%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.05
Goals for per game
1.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
86.4%
33.3%
BTTS rate
72.7%
97
History Matches
103
1.26
Goals Mean
1.39
1.25
Goals Std
1.17
69.1%
Scored 1+ rate
74.8%
33.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.7%
13.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
1.49
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
0.94
62.9%
Conceding rate
63.1%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.13
51.0%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.23
57.1%
Conceding rate
81.8%
97
History Matches
103
1.14
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.31
Conceded Std
0.91
30.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.3%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.8%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.2%
49.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.2%
49.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
97
History Matches
103
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.36
2.11
Stability score
5.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
97
Eligible Matches
103
32
Lead Matches
36
78.1%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
26
Trailing Matches
22
26.9%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
97
Halftime Coverage Matches
103
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.17
Rest days
76.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
17
Short Rest History Matches
14
1.35
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.57
62
Normal Rest History Matches
70
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
22
1.33
PPG
1.68
38.1%
Win rate
45.5%
19.0%
Draw rate
31.8%
42.9%
Loss rate
22.7%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.01
21
Current Competition Matches
22
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.68
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.27
8
Competition Season Count
10
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
9
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.78
Portability PPG Range
1.35
46.96
Portability Score
55.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
97
Clean History Matches
103
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-49.05
PPG-0.24
GF-0.13
GA0.20
PPG-0.35
PPG0.85
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate17.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.52
Stability score-3.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.43
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.61
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-8.25
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-49.05
Current Opponent ELO49.05
Current ELO Difference-98.09
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vitoria

D
Vitoria1–1Atletico Paranaense24 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 38% · missed
D
Corinthians1–1Vitoria19 Oct · away
Pick: Corinthians 51% · missed
W
Vitoria4–0Chapecoense-sc7 Oct · home
Pick: Vitoria 61% · hit
L
Atletico-MG2–1Vitoria29 Aug · away
Pick: Atletico-MG 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fluminense

W
Fluminense2–1Internacional28 Oct · home
Pick: Fluminense 50% · hit
L
Chapecoense-sc2–1Fluminense24 Oct · away
Pick: Fluminense 41% · missed
L
Fluminense1–2Santos18 Oct · home
Pick: Fluminense 53% · missed
L
Fluminense1–2Palmeiras15 Oct · home
Pick: Palmeiras 42% · hit
D
Atletico Paranaense3–3Fluminense30 Aug · away
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 38% · missed

About this match

Vitoria and Fluminense meet in Serie A on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Barradao, Salvador. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Vitoria win 34.1%, draw 30.6%, Fluminense win 35.3%. The pick is Fluminense win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.3%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.