ScoreProb
2. Bundesliga Germany Round 11 2026

1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96

1. FC Heidenheim Home · Elo 1,474
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hannover 96 Away · Elo 1,604
Voith-Arena, Heidenheim Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: 1. FC Heidenheim win
1. FC Heidenheim winPick
44.7%
Draw
21.8%
Hannover 96 win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%

How much we know

1. FC Heidenheim history66 matches
Hannover 96 history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hannover 96 are rated 130 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,474. On rating alone Hannover 96 would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Hannover 96 score more

    1.45 goals a game over 66 matches for 1. FC Heidenheim, against 1.87 over 63 for Hannover 96.

  • Hannover 96 concede fewer

    1. FC Heidenheim concede 1.91 a game, Hannover 96 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of 1. FC Heidenheim matches, against 62% for Hannover 96. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1. FC Heidenheim
Hannover 96
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.1
ELO
1603.8
66
ELO · Matches
63
1474.1
Current Team ELO
1603.8
1603.8
Current Opponent ELO
1474.1
-129.7
Current ELO Difference
129.7
0.32
Expected score
0.68
66
History Matches
63
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
48.60
Overperformance
56.38
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
3.20
3.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
2.50
Goals for per game
3.30
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.30
2.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.61
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
63
1.06
PPG
1.76
28.8%
Win rate
47.6%
19.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
51.5%
Loss rate
19.0%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
30
0.94
PPG
1.90
24.2%
Win rate
53.3%
21.2%
Draw rate
30.0%
54.5%
Loss rate
16.7%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
69.7%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
33
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.87
68.2%
Scoring rate
87.3%
59.1%
BTTS rate
61.9%
1.30
Goals for per game
2.23
60.6%
Scoring rate
93.3%
57.6%
BTTS rate
70.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
63
1.45
Goals Mean
1.87
1.53
Goals Std
1.50
68.2%
Scored 1+ rate
87.3%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
2.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.91
Goals against per game
1.17
89.4%
Conceding rate
68.3%
2.09
Goals against per game
1.23
93.9%
Conceding rate
73.3%
3.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
63
1.91
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.29
Conceded Std
1.05
56.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
28.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
2.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.7%
6.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
39.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.7%
6.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
39.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
63
0.93
Result entropy
0.94
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.88
7.14
Stability score
5.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
63
19
Lead Matches
24
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.76
28
Trailing Matches
11
21.4%
Non-loss rate
63.6%
10.7%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.06
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.28
20
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
8
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.90
Portability PPG Range
1.60
57.40
Portability Score
45.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-129.7
PPG-0.70
GF-0.42
GA0.73
PPG1.50
PPG-0.96
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate19.1%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate32.7%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.73
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.49
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score1.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate-0.42
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score11.90
Rest days-0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.28
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO-129.7
Current Opponent ELO129.7
Current ELO Difference-259.3
Expected score-0.36
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

1. FC Heidenheim

L
Karlsruher SC2–11. FC Heidenheim31 Oct · away
Pick: Karlsruher SC 53% · hit
D
1. FC Heidenheim1–1Energie Cottbus24 Oct · home
Pick: Energie Cottbus 44% · missed
L
VfL Wolfsburg3–11. FC Heidenheim17 Oct · away
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg 52% · hit
W
1. FC Heidenheim5–3Dynamo Dresden29 Aug · home
Pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hannover 96

W
Hannover 962–1Dynamo Dresden1 Nov · home
Pick: Hannover 96 42% · hit
L
Hannover 960–21. FC Kaiserslautern28 Oct · home
Pick: Hannover 96 60% · missed
L
Eintracht Braunschweig2–0Hannover 9625 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Braunschweig 49% · hit
D
Hannover 961–1FC St. Pauli17 Oct · home
Pick: Hannover 96 38% · missed
W
SV Darmstadt 980–1Hannover 9630 Aug · away
Pick: SV Darmstadt 98 50% · missed

About this match

1. FC Heidenheim and Hannover 96 meet in 2. Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Voith-Arena, Heidenheim. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: 1. FC Heidenheim win 44.7%, draw 21.8%, Hannover 96 win 33.6%. The pick is 1. FC Heidenheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.1%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.