1860 München II vs Schwabmünchen
Match result probability Model pick: 1860 München II win
1860 München II winPick
71.9%
Draw
14.9%
Schwabmünchen win
13.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.8%
No44.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.576.6%
Under 2.523.4%
How much we know
1860 München II history53 matches
Schwabmünchen history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours 1860 München II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.9%). Picks in that band won 76.0% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 601 matches.
Why 1860 München II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
1860 München II are rated 149 Elo points higher
Elo 1,580 against 1,431. On rating alone 1860 München II would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.
-
1860 München II score far more
2.26 goals a game over 53 matches for 1860 München II, against 1.36 over 14 for Schwabmünchen.
-
1860 München II concede fewer
1860 München II concede 1.21 a game, Schwabmünchen 2.64.
-
Schwabmünchen games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of 1860 München II matches, against 86% for Schwabmünchen. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schwabmünchen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1580.0
ELO
1431.0
53
ELO · Matches
14
1580.0
Current Team ELO
1431.0
1431.0
Current Opponent ELO
1580.0
149.0
Current ELO Difference
-149.0
0.70
Expected score
0.30
53
History Matches
14
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.23
54.93
Overperformance
40.43
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.50
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.90
Goals against per game
2.50
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.20
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.91
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
14
1.83
PPG
0.57
52.8%
Win rate
14.3%
24.5%
Draw rate
14.3%
22.6%
Loss rate
71.4%
88.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
43.4%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
6
2.36
PPG
0.17
72.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
8.0%
Loss rate
83.3%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
25
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.26
Goals for per game
1.36
92.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
56.6%
BTTS rate
71.4%
2.52
Goals for per game
0.50
92.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
36.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.43
Goals for per game
1.86
100.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
100.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
53
History Matches
14
2.26
Goals Mean
1.36
1.54
Goals Std
1.95
92.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
62.3%
Scored 2+ rate
21.4%
34.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
2.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.21
Goals against per game
2.64
60.4%
Conceding rate
92.9%
0.60
Goals against per game
2.33
40.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
53
History Matches
14
1.21
Conceded Mean
2.64
1.48
Conceded Std
1.44
26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
71.4%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
57.1%
0.60
Venue Conceded Mean
2.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
7.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
7.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
14
0.93
Result entropy
0.72
2.32
Goal Difference Std
2.76
7.33
Stability score
27.52
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
12
28
Lead Matches
2
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
7
30.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
1.06
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
83.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.63
23
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
7
Matches
7
1.29
PPG
0.71
28.6%
Win rate
14.3%
42.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
57.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.18
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.29
Current Competition PPG
0.71
0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.14
5
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.36
2.17
Portability PPG Range
0.71
40.07
Portability Score
58.33
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO149.0
PPG1.26
GF0.91
GA-1.44
PPG0.57
PPG2.19
PPG-0.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate32.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate43.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.42
History Matches39
Goals Mean0.91
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate21.0%
Scored 2+ rate40.8%
Scored 3+ rate26.8%
Venue Goals Mean2.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches39
Conceded Mean-1.44
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.45
Conceded 3+ rate-0.42
Venue Conceded Mean-1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches39
Result entropy0.20
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-20.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches40
Lead Matches26
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate15.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches40
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.57
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.39
Portability PPG Range1.45
Portability Score-18.26
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.16
Long Rest History Matches19
Long Rest Points Per Match1.91
Current Team ELO149.0
Current Opponent ELO-149.0
Current ELO Difference298.1
Expected score0.40
History Matches39
Residual Mean0.30
Overperformance14.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
1860 München II
L
1860 München II1–4Heimstetten31 Oct · home
Pick: 1860 München II 58% · missed W
1860 München II2–0Pipinsried23 Oct · home
Pick: 1860 München II 46% · hit D
Sportfreunde Schwaig3–31860 München II16 Oct · away
Pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Schwabmünchen
L
Schwabmünchen0–21860 Rosenheim31 Oct · home
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 45% · hit W
Ismaning1–2Schwabmünchen24 Oct · away
Pick: Ismaning 64% · missed L
Schwabmünchen2–3Erlbach17 Oct · home
Pick: Erlbach 59% · hit W
Pfaffenhofen0–3Schwabmünchen29 Aug · away
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
1860 München II and Schwabmünchen meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: 1860 München II win 71.9%, draw 14.9%, Schwabmünchen win 13.2%. The pick is 1860 München II win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.6%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.