ScoreProb
Superliga Denmark Round 14 2026

Aarhus vs AC Horsens

Aarhus Home · Elo 1,632
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
AC Horsens Away · Elo 1,561
New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aarhus win
Aarhus winPick
54.1%
Draw
22.8%
AC Horsens win
23.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

Aarhus history73 matches
AC Horsens history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Aarhus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aarhus are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,632 against 1,561. On rating alone Aarhus would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Aarhus score more

    1.85 goals a game over 73 matches for Aarhus, against 1.35 over 66 for AC Horsens.

  • Defences are close

    Aarhus concede 1.32 a game, AC Horsens 1.21.

  • Aarhus games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Aarhus matches, against 48% for AC Horsens. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aarhus
AC Horsens
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1632.1
ELO
1560.6
73
ELO · Matches
66
1632.1
Current Team ELO
1560.6
1560.6
Current Opponent ELO
1632.1
71.48
Current ELO Difference
-71.48
0.60
Expected score
0.40
73
History Matches
66
0.10
Residual Mean
0.04
57.53
Overperformance
52.89
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
66
1.77
PPG
1.50
50.7%
Win rate
42.4%
24.7%
Draw rate
22.7%
24.7%
Loss rate
34.8%
87.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
36
2.00
PPG
1.47
59.0%
Win rate
41.7%
23.1%
Draw rate
22.2%
17.9%
Loss rate
36.1%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
59.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
41.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
39
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.35
90.4%
Scoring rate
71.2%
72.6%
BTTS rate
48.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.31
89.7%
Scoring rate
69.4%
64.1%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
73
History Matches
66
1.85
Goals Mean
1.35
1.29
Goals Std
1.24
90.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
53.4%
Scored 2+ rate
37.9%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.21
78.1%
Conceding rate
65.2%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.11
66.7%
Conceding rate
63.9%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
73
History Matches
66
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.05
Conceded Std
1.19
34.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
9.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
9.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
66
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.64
5.80
Stability score
2.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
65
35
Lead Matches
22
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.80
15
Trailing Matches
16
40.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
39
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
27
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.34
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
0.75
PPG
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
75.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
4
Current Competition Matches
5
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
7
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.19
2.25
Portability PPG Range
0.58
39.68
Portability Score
72.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO71.48
PPG0.27
GF0.50
GA0.10
PPG-0.65
PPG0.53
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate19.2%
Scored 2+ rate15.5%
Scored 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score3.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.73
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate2.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate21.3%
Trailing Win Rate13.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.65
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.05
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range1.67
Portability Score-32.46
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO71.48
Current Opponent ELO-71.48
Current ELO Difference143.0
Expected score0.20
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aarhus

L
Brondby2–0Aarhus1 Nov · away
Pick: Brondby 55% · hit
W
Roskilde1–2Aarhus28 Oct · away
Pick: Aarhus 48% · hit
W
Aarhus2–1Viborg25 Oct · home
Pick: Viborg 43% · missed
D
Aarhus1–1Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 Oct · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 44% · missed
D
FC Copenhagen1–1Aarhus18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 62% · missed

AC Horsens

L
Viborg1–0AC Horsens1 Nov · away
Pick: Viborg 58% · hit
W
AC Horsens5–1Sonderjyske25 Oct · home
Pick: AC Horsens 51% · hit
D
AC Horsens0–0Randers FC16 Oct · home
Pick: AC Horsens 52% · missed
W
Lyseng0–4AC Horsens1 Sep · away
Pick: AC Horsens 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aarhus and AC Horsens meet in Superliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Aarhus win 54.1%, draw 22.8%, AC Horsens win 23.1%. The pick is Aarhus win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.