ScoreProb
Superliga Denmark Round 14 2026

Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland

Randers FC Home · Elo 1,496
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Nordsjaelland Away · Elo 1,601
Cepheus Park, Randers Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Nordsjaelland win
Randers FC win
24.0%
Draw
22.8%
FC Nordsjaelland winPick
53.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.5%
No40.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

Randers FC history69 matches
FC Nordsjaelland history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Nordsjaelland are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Nordsjaelland are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,601 against 1,496. On rating alone FC Nordsjaelland would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • FC Nordsjaelland score more

    1.48 goals a game over 69 matches for Randers FC, against 1.67 over 72 for FC Nordsjaelland.

  • FC Nordsjaelland concede fewer

    Randers FC concede 1.65 a game, FC Nordsjaelland 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Randers FC matches, against 60% for FC Nordsjaelland. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Randers FC
FC Nordsjaelland
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.6
ELO
1600.9
69
ELO · Matches
72
1495.6
Current Team ELO
1600.9
1600.9
Current Opponent ELO
1495.6
-105.3
Current ELO Difference
105.3
0.35
Expected score
0.65
69
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
0.07
49.94
Overperformance
55.76
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
3.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.00
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
72
1.23
PPG
1.56
33.3%
Win rate
45.8%
23.2%
Draw rate
18.1%
43.5%
Loss rate
36.1%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
62.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
35
1.31
PPG
1.20
37.1%
Win rate
34.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
17.1%
42.9%
Loss rate
48.6%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.67
72.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
58.0%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.31
77.1%
Scoring rate
65.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
48.6%
0.60
Goals for per game
1.50
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
69
History Matches
72
1.48
Goals Mean
1.67
1.23
Goals Std
1.49
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.6%
20.3%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.47
75.4%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.77
71.4%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.25
80.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
69
History Matches
72
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.40
Conceded Std
1.37
49.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
23.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
72
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.22
2.86
Stability score
5.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
69
13
Lead Matches
21
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.89
25
Trailing Matches
21
16.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.94
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
77.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
14
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.21
35
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
31
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
0.80
PPG
2.50
20.0%
Win rate
75.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
5
Current Competition Matches
4
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.45
Portability PPG Range
1.27
49.46
Portability Score
51.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-105.3
PPG-0.32
GF-0.19
GA0.18
PPG-1.70
PPG0.11
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate7.6%
Conceded 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score-2.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.70
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.05
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-2.44
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.29
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO-105.3
Current Opponent ELO105.3
Current ELO Difference-210.5
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Randers FC

L
Lyngby1–0Randers FC3 Nov · away
Pick: Lyngby 42% · hit
L
Lyngby2–1Randers FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Lyngby 48% · hit
L
Randers FC1–3Brondby23 Oct · home
Pick: Brondby 52% · hit
D
AC Horsens0–0Randers FC16 Oct · away
Pick: AC Horsens 52% · missed
W
Randers FC2–1Aarhus30 Aug · home
Pick: Aarhus 47% · missed

FC Nordsjaelland

L
FC Nordsjaelland2–3FC Midtjylland1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Nordsjaelland 39% · missed
W
Esbjerg0–1FC Nordsjaelland28 Oct · away
Pick: Esbjerg 40% · missed
D
Silkeborg1–1FC Nordsjaelland25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Nordsjaelland 45% · missed
D
FC Nordsjaelland2–2CSKA Sofia22 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 44% · missed
D
Lyngby3–3FC Nordsjaelland18 Oct · away
Pick: Lyngby 39% · missed

About this match

Randers FC and FC Nordsjaelland meet in Superliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Cepheus Park, Randers. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Randers FC win 24.0%, draw 22.8%, FC Nordsjaelland win 53.2%. The pick is FC Nordsjaelland win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 59.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.