ScoreProb
Super League 1 Greece Round 10 2026

AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos

AEK Athens FC Home · Elo 1,692
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Levadiakos Away · Elo 1,571
Allwyn Arena, Athens Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AEK Athens FC win
AEK Athens FC winPick
73.4%
Draw
15.8%
Levadiakos win
10.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

AEK Athens FC history78 matches
Levadiakos history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why AEK Athens FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AEK Athens FC are rated 121 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,692 against 1,571. On rating alone AEK Athens FC would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.68 goals a game over 78 matches for AEK Athens FC, against 1.82 over 61 for Levadiakos.

  • AEK Athens FC concede fewer

    AEK Athens FC concede 0.87 a game, Levadiakos 1.23.

  • Levadiakos games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of AEK Athens FC matches, against 61% for Levadiakos. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AEK Athens FC
Levadiakos@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1692.2
ELO
1571.0
78
ELO · Matches
61
1692.2
Current Team ELO
1571.0
1571.0
Current Opponent ELO
1692.2
121.2
Current ELO Difference
-121.2
0.67
Expected score
0.33
78
History Matches
61
0.12
Residual Mean
0.05
59.90
Overperformance
54.13
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.60
2.10
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
61
1.96
PPG
1.75
57.7%
Win rate
52.5%
23.1%
Draw rate
18.0%
19.2%
Loss rate
29.5%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
31
2.15
PPG
1.55
67.5%
Win rate
45.2%
12.5%
Draw rate
19.4%
20.0%
Loss rate
35.5%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
40
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.68
Goals for per game
1.82
79.5%
Scoring rate
75.4%
39.7%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.98
Goals for per game
1.45
87.5%
Scoring rate
71.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
51.6%
4.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
78
History Matches
61
1.68
Goals Mean
1.82
1.40
Goals Std
1.47
79.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
1.98
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.23
52.6%
Conceding rate
70.5%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.42
50.0%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
4.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
78
History Matches
61
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.08
Conceded Std
1.12
24.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
61
0.89
Result entropy
0.92
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.96
11.45
Stability score
8.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
61
31
Lead Matches
21
90.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
1.00
16
Trailing Matches
20
50.0%
Non-loss rate
45.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.56
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
18
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-4.00
10
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.32
Portability PPG Range
0.75
50.79
Portability Score
61.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO121.2
PPG0.21
GF-0.14
GA-0.36
PPG3.00
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate27.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches17
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score3.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.81
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean8.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-10.85
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.56
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO121.2
Current Opponent ELO-121.2
Current ELO Difference242.4
Expected score0.34
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AEK Athens FC

L
PAOK3–1AEK Athens FC28 Oct · away
Pick: PAOK 46% · hit
W
AEK Athens FC5–0Panetolikos24 Oct · home
Pick: AEK Athens FC 63% · hit
L
Manchester City5–1AEK Athens FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City 55% · hit
L
Shakhtar Donetsk3–1AEK Athens FC14 Oct · away
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk 49% · hit
D
Kifisia1–1AEK Athens FC30 Aug · away
Pick: AEK Athens FC 47% · missed

Levadiakos

W
Levadiakos3–0Aris Thessalonikis1 Nov · home
Pick: Aris Thessalonikis 42% · missed
D
Asteras Tripolis0–0Levadiakos24 Oct · away
Pick: Asteras Tripolis 50% · missed
D
Levadiakos0–0Volos NFC17 Oct · home
Pick: Volos NFC 42% · missed
L
Levadiakos0–2Panathinaikos31 Aug · home
Pick: Panathinaikos 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos meet in Super League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Allwyn Arena, Athens. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: AEK Athens FC win 73.4%, draw 15.8%, Levadiakos win 10.8%. The pick is AEK Athens FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.