Águila vs Municipal Limeño
Match result probability Model pick: Águila win
Águila winPick
46.9%
Draw
25.7%
Municipal Limeño win
27.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.4%
No47.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%
How much we know
Águila history84 matches
Municipal Limeño history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Águila
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 21:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Águila are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Águila are rated 32 Elo points higher
Elo 1,571 against 1,539. On rating alone Águila would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Águila score more
1.48 goals a game over 84 matches for Águila, against 1.23 over 80 for Municipal Limeño.
-
Defences are close
Águila concede 1.14 a game, Municipal Limeño 1.10.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
48% of Águila matches, against 41% for Municipal Limeño. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Municipal Limeño@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1571.0
ELO
1539.1
84
ELO · Matches
80
1571.0
Current Team ELO
1539.1
1539.1
Current Opponent ELO
1571.0
31.94
Current ELO Difference
-31.94
0.55
Expected score
0.45
84
History Matches
80
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.09
Overperformance
51.56
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals 90
84
Matches
80
1.70
PPG
1.48
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.2%
Draw rate
27.5%
29.8%
Loss rate
32.5%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
41.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.5%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals 100
41
Matches
42
1.68
PPG
1.24
48.8%
Win rate
31.0%
22.0%
Draw rate
31.0%
29.3%
Loss rate
38.1%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
41
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.23
75.0%
Scoring rate
73.8%
47.6%
BTTS rate
51.3%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.12
82.9%
Scoring rate
71.4%
61.0%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.17
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
84
History Matches
80
1.48
Goals Mean
1.23
1.21
Goals Std
1.11
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.5%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.10
67.9%
Conceding rate
65.0%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.19
78.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
83.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
84
History Matches
80
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.05
Conceded Std
1.06
32.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
84
History Matches
80
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.49
6.19
Stability score
1.07
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
84
Eligible Matches
79
34
Lead Matches
26
79.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.1%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.79
19
Trailing Matches
19
21.1%
Non-loss rate
5.3%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
81.81
Rest days
82.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
20
1.88
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
50
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
6
Matches
6
0.50
PPG
1.17
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
6
Current Competition Matches
6
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.17
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.17
5
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.88
Portability PPG Std
0.24
2.50
Portability PPG Range
0.63
36.23
Portability Score
67.64
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
84
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO31.94
PPG0.23
GF0.25
GA0.04
PPG-0.67
PPG0.44
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate11.5%
Scored 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score5.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate15.8%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.64
Portability PPG Range1.87
Portability Score-31.41
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.28
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO31.94
Current Opponent ELO-31.94
Current ELO Difference63.88
Expected score0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Águila
W
Fuerte San Francisco3–4Águila1 Nov · away
Pick: Águila 45% · hit W
Águila3–1FAS24 Oct · home
Pick: FAS 41% · missed D
Atletico Balboa2–2Águila18 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Balboa 34% · missed W
Águila4–1Fuerte San Francisco30 Aug · home
Pick: Águila 53% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Municipal Limeño
D
Isidro Metapán1–1Municipal Limeño1 Nov · away
Pick: Isidro Metapán 48% · missed D
Municipal Limeño3–3Cacahuatique25 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal Limeño 45% · missed W
Inter1–2Municipal Limeño17 Oct · away
Pick: Inter 47% · missed L
Platense2–1Municipal Limeño4 Oct · away
Pick: Platense 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Águila and Municipal Limeño meet in Primera Division on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Águila win 46.9%, draw 25.7%, Municipal Limeño win 27.4%. The pick is Águila win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.8%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.