ScoreProb
AGCFF Gulf Champions League World Round 3 2026

Al-Ettifaq vs Ajman

Al-Ettifaq Home · Elo 1,548
Full time
2–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
Ajman Away · Elo 1,502
Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Al-Ettifaq win
Al-Ettifaq winPick Result
62.7%
Draw
20.0%
Ajman win
17.3%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickAl-Ettifaq win · 62.7%
What happenedAl-Ettifaq win · we gave it 62.7%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 62.2%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 59.9%
What happenedNo · 2–0
Missed

How surprising was it?

Result: Al-Ettifaq win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

63%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 1.6
on average
A pick at 63% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

43'
Yellow cardB. Yousif
GoalA. Kante · assist A. Hawsawi
53'
SubstitutionO. Duda off · A. Medran on
57'
SubstitutionA. Hawsawi off · R. Sharahili on
57'
62'
SubstitutionB. Yousif off · A. Mittache on
SubstitutionPedro Henrique off · M. Gluscevic on
70'
SubstitutionS. Harun off · M. Al Olayan on
70'
86'
SubstitutionLithierry off · S. Hadani on
86'
SubstitutionVitor Vargas off · A. Sulaiman on
SubstitutionY. Al Shammari off · M. H. Tambakti on
88'
90+6'
SubstitutionVictor Hugo off · Y. Jabri on
GoalM. Gluscevic · assist B. Celina
90+8'

Both teams to score

Yes59.9%
No40.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%

How much we know

Al-Ettifaq history64 matches
Ajman history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 2–0One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Al-Ettifaq are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al-Ettifaq are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,502. On rating alone Al-Ettifaq would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.45 goals a game over 64 matches for Al-Ettifaq, against 1.32 over 44 for Ajman.

  • Defences are close

    Al-Ettifaq concede 1.45 a game, Ajman 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Al-Ettifaq matches, against 48% for Ajman. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Ettifaq
Ajman@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.8
ELO
1502.0
64
ELO · Matches
44
1547.8
Current Team ELO
1502.0
1502.0
Current Opponent ELO
1547.8
45.74
Current ELO Difference
-45.74
0.57
Expected score
0.43
64
History Matches
44
0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
52.61
Overperformance
50.32
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
44
1.47
PPG
1.23
40.6%
Win rate
34.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.5%
34.4%
Loss rate
45.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
54.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
22
1.65
PPG
1.27
45.2%
Win rate
36.4%
29.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
25.8%
Loss rate
45.5%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
31
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
1.32
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.5%
59.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.00
77.4%
Scoring rate
59.1%
61.3%
BTTS rate
36.4%
64
History Matches
44
1.45
Goals Mean
1.32
1.21
Goals Std
1.28
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.5%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
34.1%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.45
Goals against per game
1.61
76.6%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.36
71.0%
Conceding rate
68.2%
64
History Matches
44
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.20
Conceded Std
1.17
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
44
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.59
1.73
Stability score
4.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
44
16
Lead Matches
8
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.67
22
Trailing Matches
19
22.7%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.00
Rest days
74.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.38
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
38
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
17
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.04
1.75
Portability PPG Range
0.08
44.99
Portability Score
92.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.74
PPG0.24
GF0.13
GA-0.16
PPG0.37
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches20
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate9.7%
Scored 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches20
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-2.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.74
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate1.7%
Trailing Win Rate3.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range1.67
Portability Score-47.86
Rest days-3.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO45.74
Current Opponent ELO-45.74
Current ELO Difference91.48
Expected score0.13
History Matches20
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al-Ettifaq

D
Al Taawon1–1Al-Ettifaq31 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 42% · missed
W
Al Kholood0–3Al-Ettifaq24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Kholood 38% · missed
L
Al-Ettifaq1–4Al-Ittihad FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 38% · hit
W
NEOM0–1Al-Ettifaq17 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 38% · hit
L
Al-Ettifaq0–3Al Diriyah29 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 59% · missed

Ajman

L
Al-Jazira1–0Ajman22 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Jazira 57% · hit
L
Ajman1–3Sharjah FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Ajman 38% · missed
L
Al-Jazira3–0Ajman29 Aug · away
Pick: Al-Jazira 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Al-Ettifaq and Ajman finished 2–0 in AGCFF Gulf Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Al-Ettifaq win 62.7%, draw 20.0%, Ajman win 17.3%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.