Al Faisaly vs Shabab Al Ordon
Match result probability Model pick: Al Faisaly win
Al Faisaly winPick
60.4%
Draw
22.6%
Shabab Al Ordon win
17.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.8%
No53.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%
How much we know
Al Faisaly history51 matches
Shabab Al Ordon history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Al Faisaly
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Al Faisaly are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al Faisaly are rated 153 Elo points higher
Elo 1,630 against 1,476. On rating alone Al Faisaly would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.
-
Al Faisaly score far more
1.73 goals a game over 51 matches for Al Faisaly, against 0.88 over 49 for Shabab Al Ordon.
-
Al Faisaly concede fewer
Al Faisaly concede 0.73 a game, Shabab Al Ordon 1.29.
-
Al Faisaly games more often go over 2.5 goals
47% of Al Faisaly matches, against 39% for Shabab Al Ordon. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 12 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shabab Al Ordon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1629.6
ELO
1476.4
51
ELO · Matches
49
1629.6
Current Team ELO
1476.4
1476.4
Current Opponent ELO
1629.6
153.2
Current ELO Difference
-153.2
0.71
Expected score
0.29
51
History Matches
49
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.02
59.21
Overperformance
48.83
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
49
2.12
PPG
1.10
62.7%
Win rate
28.6%
23.5%
Draw rate
24.5%
13.7%
Loss rate
46.9%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.2%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.8%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.3%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
23
2.30
PPG
1.00
70.4%
Win rate
26.1%
18.5%
Draw rate
21.7%
11.1%
Loss rate
52.2%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
52.2%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
27
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.73
Goals for per game
0.88
76.5%
Scoring rate
59.2%
47.1%
BTTS rate
38.8%
1.85
Goals for per game
0.78
81.5%
Scoring rate
52.2%
51.9%
BTTS rate
34.8%
51
History Matches
49
1.73
Goals Mean
0.88
1.43
Goals Std
1.00
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
59.2%
51.0%
Scored 2+ rate
18.4%
29.4%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
0.78
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.73
Goals against per game
1.29
60.8%
Conceding rate
65.3%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.26
63.0%
Conceding rate
60.9%
51
History Matches
49
0.73
Conceded Mean
1.29
0.66
Conceded Std
1.31
11.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
49
0.82
Result entropy
0.96
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.73
17.58
Stability score
3.74
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
49
25
Lead Matches
9
92.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.81
9
Trailing Matches
15
44.4%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
180.0
Rest days
184.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.67
54.60
Portability Score
65.36
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO153.2
PPG1.02
GF0.85
GA-0.56
PPG1.30
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.85
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate17.3%
Scored 2+ rate32.6%
Scored 3+ rate23.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.65
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score13.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate14.2%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate31.1%
Trailing Win Rate15.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-10.76
Rest days-4.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.06
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.83
Current Team ELO153.2
Current Opponent ELO-153.2
Current ELO Difference306.3
Expected score0.41
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al Faisaly
L
Al Faisaly0–1Al Hussein31 Oct · home
Pick: Al Hussein 43% · hit L
Al Faisaly0–2Al Taawon28 Oct · home
Pick: Al Faisaly 39% · missed D
Al Jazeera2–2Al Faisaly23 Oct · away
Pick: Al Faisaly 47% · missed W
Al Faisaly4–1Al Ramtha17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Faisaly 53% · hit W
Al Faisaly2–0Al-Nahda14 Oct · home
Pick: Al Faisaly 40% · hit Shabab Al Ordon
L
Shabab Al Ordon0–1Al Wihdat24 Oct · home
Pick: Al Wihdat 51% · hit L
Al Arabi1–0Shabab Al Ordon15 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 41% · missed L
Shabab Al Ordon0–3Al Buqa'a8 Oct · home
Pick: Shabab Al Ordon 58% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Al Faisaly and Shabab Al Ordon meet in League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Al Faisaly win 60.4%, draw 22.6%, Shabab Al Ordon win 17.1%. The pick is Al Faisaly win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.