Al-Gharafa B vs UMM Salal
What we said before kickoff Result: UMM Salal win
Al-Gharafa B winPick
42.1%
Draw
27.9%
UMM Salal win Result
30.0%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickAl-Gharafa B win · 42.1%
What happenedUMM Salal win · we gave it 30.0%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 53.0%
What happenedOver · 4 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 50.2%
What happenedYes · 1–3
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: UMM Salal win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
30%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 3.3
on average A pick at 42% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
17'
Goal
Goal
36' 45+1'
Goal
76'
Goal
Both teams to score
Yes50.2%
No49.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%
How much we know
Al-Gharafa B history1 match
UMM Salal history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 16:30 UTC
- Full time: 1–3Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Al-Gharafa B are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al-Gharafa B are rated 35 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,465. On rating alone Al-Gharafa B would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
UMM Salal score far more
1.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Al-Gharafa B, against 1.82 over 50 for UMM Salal.
-
Al-Gharafa B concede fewer
Al-Gharafa B concede 1.00 a game, UMM Salal 2.18.
-
UMM Salal games more often go over 2.5 goals
0% of Al-Gharafa B matches, against 78% for UMM Salal. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UMM Salal@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.4
ELO
1465.4
1
ELO · Matches
50
1500.4
Current Team ELO
1465.4
1465.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.4
34.95
Current ELO Difference
-34.95
0.55
Expected score
0.45
1
History Matches
50
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.65
Overperformance
47.11
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
1
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.80
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
1
Matches
50
1.00
PPG
1.18
0.0%
Win rate
34.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
16.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
78.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
27
—
PPG
1.11
—
Win rate
33.3%
—
Draw rate
11.1%
—
Loss rate
55.6%
—
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
—
Over 2.5 rate
92.6%
—
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
0
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.82
100.0%
Scoring rate
84.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
68.0%
—
Goals for per game
2.04
—
Scoring rate
85.2%
—
BTTS rate
70.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
50
1.00
Goals Mean
1.82
—
Goals Std
1.23
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
62.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
—
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.00
Goals against per game
2.18
100.0%
Conceding rate
82.0%
—
Goals against per game
2.52
—
Conceding rate
85.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
50
1.00
Conceded Mean
2.18
—
Conceded Std
1.75
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.0%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
2.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
1
History Matches
50
0.00
Result entropy
0.92
—
Goal Difference Std
2.26
100.0
Stability score
8.38
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
1
Eligible Matches
50
1
Lead Matches
18
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.74
0
Trailing Matches
15
—
Non-loss rate
6.7%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.00
Rest days
71.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
21
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
0
Long Rest History Matches
24
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
1
Competition Season Count
8
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.45
—
Portability PPG Range
1.13
—
Portability Score
52.44
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
1
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.95
PPG-0.18
GF-0.82
GA-1.18
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-49
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-27
History Matches-49
Goals Mean-0.82
Scored 1+ rate16.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.62
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
History Matches-49
Conceded Mean-1.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate-0.58
Conceded 3+ rate-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
History Matches-49
Result entropy-0.92
Stability score91.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.94
Eligible Matches-49
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.72
Lead Points Retention-0.41
Trailing Matches-15
Halftime Coverage Matches-49
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-7
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days1.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Long Rest History Matches-24
Current Team ELO34.95
Current Opponent ELO-34.95
Current ELO Difference69.90
Expected score0.10
History Matches-49
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance2.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al-Gharafa B
L
Al-Khor4–0Al-Gharafa B28 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Gharafa B 43% · missed L
Al Mesaimeer5–0Al-Gharafa B14 Oct · away
Pick: Al Mesaimeer 55% · hit L
Al-Gharafa B0–3Al-Markhiya30 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Markhiya 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
UMM Salal
D
UMM Salal0–0Al Bidda SC29 Oct · home
Pick: UMM Salal 47% · missed W
Al Waab0–1UMM Salal14 Oct · away
Pick: Al Waab 51% · missed W
Al Mesaimeer1–2UMM Salal30 Aug · away
Pick: Al Mesaimeer 50% · missed D
UMM Salal1–1Qatar U2325 Aug · home
Pick: UMM Salal 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Al-Gharafa B and UMM Salal finished 1–3 in Second Division on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Al-Gharafa B win 42.1%, draw 27.9%, UMM Salal win 30.0%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.