ScoreProb
Division 1 Kuwait Round 4 2026

Al Jazira vs Khaitan

Al Jazira Home · Elo 1,520
Full time
1–1
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 14:30 UTC
Khaitan Away · Elo 1,460
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Al Jazira win
32.0%
Draw Result
29.7%
Khaitan winPick
38.4%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickKhaitan win · 38.4%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 29.7%
Missed
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 56.6%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.8%
What happenedYes · 1–1
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.

30%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 3.4
on average
A pick at 38% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Al Jazira history19 matches
Khaitan history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full time: 1–1One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
Save picture

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Khaitan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Jazira are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,460. On rating alone Al Jazira would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Al Jazira score far more

    1.84 goals a game over 19 matches for Al Jazira, against 0.88 over 34 for Khaitan.

  • Khaitan concede fewer

    Al Jazira concede 1.32 a game, Khaitan 1.12.

  • Al Jazira games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Al Jazira matches, against 38% for Khaitan. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Jazira
Khaitan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.3
ELO
1460.3
19
ELO · Matches
34
1520.3
Current Team ELO
1460.3
1460.3
Current Opponent ELO
1520.3
59.98
Current ELO Difference
-59.98
0.59
Expected score
0.41
19
History Matches
34
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
52.45
Overperformance
46.12
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
34
1.53
PPG
1.03
42.1%
Win rate
23.5%
26.3%
Draw rate
32.4%
31.6%
Loss rate
44.1%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
61.8%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
18
1.44
PPG
0.94
44.4%
Win rate
16.7%
11.1%
Draw rate
44.4%
44.4%
Loss rate
38.9%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
9
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.84
Goals for per game
0.88
78.9%
Scoring rate
55.9%
47.4%
BTTS rate
38.2%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.83
77.8%
Scoring rate
50.0%
44.4%
BTTS rate
38.9%
19
History Matches
34
1.84
Goals Mean
0.88
1.31
Goals Std
1.08
78.9%
Scored 1+ rate
55.9%
63.2%
Scored 2+ rate
20.6%
31.6%
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.32
Goals against per game
1.12
63.2%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.06
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
19
History Matches
34
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.30
Conceded Std
1.02
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
26.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
34
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.57
1.74
Stability score
2.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
26
4
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
6
Trailing Matches
7
50.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.19
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.96
Rest days
78.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
8
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.75
9
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.30
—
Portability PPG Range
0.60
—
Portability Score
62.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO59.98
PPG0.50
GF0.96
GA0.20
PPG0.50
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-15
Goals Mean0.96
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate23.1%
Scored 2+ rate42.6%
Scored 3+ rate25.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Conceded 2+ rate1.5%
Conceded 3+ rate14.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score-1.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate50.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO59.98
Current Opponent ELO-59.98
Current ELO Difference120.0
Expected score0.17
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance6.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Jazira

W
Sporty0–6Al Jazira24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Jazira 59% · hit
W
Al Jazira6–1Shamiya14 Oct · home
Pick: Al Jazira 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Khaitan

W
Khaitan6–0Ittihad Al-Shorta24 Oct · home
Pick: Khaitan 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Al Jazira and Khaitan finished 1–1 in Division 1 on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Al Jazira win 32.0%, draw 29.7%, Khaitan win 38.4%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.