Al Nasr vs Qatar SC
What we said before kickoff Result: Al Nasr win
Al Nasr winPick Result
57.1%
Draw
21.2%
Qatar SC win
21.7%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickAl Nasr win · 57.1%
What happenedAl Nasr win · we gave it 57.1%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 57.2%
What happenedOver · 5 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 55.3%
What happenedYes · 4–1
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Al Nasr win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
57%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.8
on average A pick at 57% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalR. Mierez · assist I. Faiz
21' 29'
Yellow card
GoalM. Ghaedi · assist R. Mierez
45' 45+1'
GoalF. Selemani
50'
Yellow cardP. Prim
Yellow cardI. Faiz
50' 58'
Yellow cardS. Diouf
SubstitutionR. Mierez off · C. Bedia on
61' SubstitutionI. Faiz off · H. Mahdi on
61' 62'
SubstitutionI. Abdelhalim off · S. Soria on
62'
SubstitutionA. Addai off · Y. Boli on
Yellow cardA. Hrustic
64' SubstitutionK. Agudelo off · Felipe Motta on
68' SubstitutionA. Hrustic off · Wesley Delgado on
74' 76'
SubstitutionN. Mason off · E. Palangi on
GoalM. Ghaedi · assist D. Petrovic
76' 82'
SubstitutionY. Lafrid off · M. Mushrinn on
83'
Yellow cardE. Palangi
GoalWesley Delgado · assist M. Ghaedi
90+6' Both teams to score
Yes55.3%
No44.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.2%
Under 2.542.8%
How much we know
Al Nasr history50 matches
Qatar SC history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full time: 4–1All three of our picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Al Nasr are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al Nasr are rated 42 Elo points higher
Elo 1,530 against 1,488. On rating alone Al Nasr would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Qatar SC score more
1.26 goals a game over 50 matches for Al Nasr, against 1.60 over 45 for Qatar SC.
-
Al Nasr concede fewer
Al Nasr concede 1.28 a game, Qatar SC 1.71.
-
Qatar SC games more often go over 2.5 goals
48% of Al Nasr matches, against 60% for Qatar SC. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Qatar SC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1529.6
ELO
1488.0
50
ELO · Matches
45
1529.6
Current Team ELO
1488.0
1488.0
Current Opponent ELO
1529.6
41.63
Current ELO Difference
-41.63
0.56
Expected score
0.44
50
History Matches
45
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.65
Overperformance
48.68
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
45
1.42
PPG
1.27
36.0%
Win rate
33.3%
34.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
30.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.2%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
26.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
24
1.15
PPG
1.17
25.9%
Win rate
29.2%
37.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
37.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
1.60
72.0%
Scoring rate
82.2%
58.0%
BTTS rate
68.9%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.54
63.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
51.9%
BTTS rate
70.8%
50
History Matches
45
1.26
Goals Mean
1.60
0.98
Goals Std
1.36
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.8%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.71
76.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.37
Goals against per game
1.63
81.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
50
History Matches
45
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.71
0.98
Conceded Std
1.41
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.4%
1.37
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
45
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.09
Goal Difference Std
1.97
0.26
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
50
Eligible Matches
45
14
Lead Matches
15
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.69
18
Trailing Matches
13
44.4%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.93
Rest days
191.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
21
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
28
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.34
70.34
Portability Score
78.09
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO41.63
PPG0.15
GF-0.34
GA-0.43
PPG-0.02
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate16.2%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.43
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.88
Stability score-0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.79
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate11.4%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate6.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.16
Portability Score-7.75
Rest days-116.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO41.63
Current Opponent ELO-41.63
Current ELO Difference83.27
Expected score0.12
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al Nasr
W
Al Zawra'a0–1Al Nasr28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Zawra'a 58% · missed W
Al Nasr2–0Hatta SC17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Nasr 56% · hit W
Al Nasr4–1Hatta SC8 Oct · home
Pick: Al Nasr 49% · hit L
Al Ain2–1Al Nasr29 Aug · away
Pick: Al Ain 67% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Qatar SC
L
Al-Gharafa2–0Qatar SC30 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Gharafa 59% · hit L
Al Riffa4–1Qatar SC27 Oct · away
Pick: Al Riffa 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Al Nasr and Qatar SC finished 4–1 in AGCFF Gulf Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 2–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Al Nasr win 57.1%, draw 21.2%, Qatar SC win 21.7%. All three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.