Al Nasr vs Sur
What we said before kickoff Result: Sur win
Al Nasr winPick
55.8%
Draw
25.3%
Sur win Result
18.8%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickAl Nasr win · 55.8%
What happenedSur win · we gave it 18.8%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 52.7%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 50.6%
What happenedNo · 0–3
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Sur win. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
19%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 5.3
on average A pick at 56% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
40'
GoalM. Al-Muhaijiri
66'
Penalty goalA. Al Mushaifri
78'
GoalH. Emmanuel
Both teams to score
Yes49.4%
No50.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%
How much we know
Al Nasr history47 matches
Sur history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:05 UTC
- Full time: 0–3One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Al Nasr are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al Nasr are rated 79 Elo points higher
Elo 1,591 against 1,512. On rating alone Al Nasr would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.32 goals a game over 47 matches for Al Nasr, against 1.26 over 42 for Sur.
-
Al Nasr concede fewer
Al Nasr concede 0.72 a game, Sur 1.38.
-
Sur games more often go over 2.5 goals
34% of Al Nasr matches, against 50% for Sur. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1591.4
ELO
1511.9
47
ELO · Matches
42
1591.4
Current Team ELO
1511.9
1511.9
Current Opponent ELO
1591.4
79.47
Current ELO Difference
-79.47
0.61
Expected score
0.39
47
History Matches
42
0.09
Residual Mean
0.01
56.51
Overperformance
50.75
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
0.70
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals 90
47
Matches
42
1.89
PPG
1.33
55.3%
Win rate
35.7%
23.4%
Draw rate
26.2%
21.3%
Loss rate
38.1%
59.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
34.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
12.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
22
1.91
PPG
1.14
56.5%
Win rate
27.3%
21.7%
Draw rate
31.8%
21.7%
Loss rate
40.9%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.32
Goals for per game
1.26
74.5%
Scoring rate
69.0%
36.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.32
73.9%
Scoring rate
77.3%
39.1%
BTTS rate
63.6%
47
History Matches
42
1.32
Goals Mean
1.26
1.15
Goals Std
1.11
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.5%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.72
Goals against per game
1.38
51.1%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.59
56.5%
Conceding rate
72.7%
47
History Matches
42
0.72
Conceded Mean
1.38
0.84
Conceded Std
1.23
17.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.8%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
47
History Matches
42
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.45
9.28
Stability score
1.12
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
41
13
Lead Matches
13
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.56
10
Trailing Matches
12
40.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
164.9
Rest days
164.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.48
Portability PPG Range
1.14
70.90
Portability Score
53.12
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
47
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO79.47
PPG0.56
GF0.06
GA-0.66
PPG0.78
PPG-1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate16.2%
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate7.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.66
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score8.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate38.5%
Lead Points Retention0.38
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate11.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.66
Portability Score17.78
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO79.47
Current Opponent ELO-79.47
Current ELO Difference158.9
Expected score0.22
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al Nasr
L
Bahla1–0Al Nasr24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Nasr 45% · missed W
Al Nasr1–0Al Seeb18 Oct · home
Pick: Al Seeb 38% · missed W
Al Nasr2–0Fanja30 Aug · home
Pick: Al Nasr 61% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sur
W
Sur2–1Oman Club24 Oct · home
Pick: Oman Club 37% · missed L
Al-Nahda5–1Sur19 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Nahda 56% · hit L
Sur2–3Al-Shabab31 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Shabab 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Al Nasr and Sur finished 0–3 in Professional League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Al Nasr win 55.8%, draw 25.3%, Sur win 18.8%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.