ScoreProb
Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 6 2026

Al Rayan vs Al Safa

Al Rayan Home · Elo 1,562
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Safa Away · Elo 1,425
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Safa win
Al Rayan win
38.5%
Draw
16.9%
Al Safa winPick
44.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%
No39.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.1%
Under 2.531.9%

How much we know

Al Rayan history13 matches
Al Safa history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:25 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Safa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Rayan are rated 136 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,425. On rating alone Al Rayan would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Al Rayan score far more

    2.23 goals a game over 13 matches for Al Rayan, against 1.07 over 30 for Al Safa.

  • Al Rayan concede fewer

    Al Rayan concede 1.31 a game, Al Safa 2.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    77% of Al Rayan matches, against 70% for Al Safa. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Rayan
Al Safa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.6
ELO
1425.1
13
ELO · Matches
30
1561.6
Current Team ELO
1425.1
1425.1
Current Opponent ELO
1561.6
136.5
Current ELO Difference
-136.5
0.69
Expected score
0.31
13
History Matches
30
0.23
Residual Mean
-0.13
59.02
Overperformance
42.00
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.10
2.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
30
2.23
PPG
0.70
69.2%
Win rate
16.7%
15.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
15.4%
Loss rate
63.3%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
17
2.50
PPG
0.71
83.3%
Win rate
17.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
16.7%
Loss rate
64.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
6
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.23
Goals for per game
1.07
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
76.9%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.12
100.0%
Scoring rate
64.7%
83.3%
BTTS rate
52.9%
13
History Matches
30
2.23
Goals Mean
1.07
0.97
Goals Std
0.93
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
69.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
46.2%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
2.27
76.9%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.47
83.3%
Conceding rate
82.4%
13
History Matches
30
1.31
Conceded Mean
2.27
0.91
Conceded Std
1.46
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
73.3%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.7%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
2.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
30
0.76
Result entropy
0.83
1.14
Goal Difference Std
1.66
24.40
Stability score
17.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
27
3
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
25.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.38
2
Trailing Matches
11
50.0%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
1.10
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
212.0
Rest days
212.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
19
2.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.53
3
Long Rest History Matches
10
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.60
—
Portability PPG Range
1.21
—
Portability Score
45.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO136.5
PPG1.53
GF1.16
GA-0.96
PPG1.79
PPG1.40
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-17
Goals Mean1.16
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate33.3%
Scored 2+ rate35.9%
Scored 3+ rate39.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.96
Conceded Std-0.55
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.52
Stability score7.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.79
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate75.0%
Lead Points Retention0.63
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate40.9%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.86
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.58
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.90
Current Team ELO136.5
Current Opponent ELO-136.5
Current ELO Difference272.9
Expected score0.37
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.36
Overperformance17.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Rayan

D
Al Rayan1–1Al Qalah2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Rayan 42% · missed
D
Arar2–2Al Rayan28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Rayan 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Safa

W
Al Safa1–0Al-Wajj2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Safa 45% · hit
L
Al Qwarah3–0Al Safa28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Safa 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Rayan and Al Safa meet in Division 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:25 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Al Rayan win 38.5%, draw 16.9%, Al Safa win 44.6%. The pick is Al Safa win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.1%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.