Al Shamal II vs Al Mesaimeer
What we said before kickoff Result: Al Shamal II win
Al Shamal II winPick Result
36.8%
Draw
27.3%
Al Mesaimeer win
36.0%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickAl Shamal II win · 36.8%
What happenedAl Shamal II win · we gave it 36.8%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 52.4%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 58.7%
What happenedYes · 2–1
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Al Shamal II win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
37%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.7
on average A pick at 37% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
Goal
17' 29'
Red card
66'
Goal
Goal
90+4' Both teams to score
Yes41.3%
No58.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.6%
Under 2.552.4%
How much we know
Al Shamal II history1 match
Al Mesaimeer history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 14:15 UTC
- Full time: 2–1One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Al Shamal II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,498 against 1,476. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Al Mesaimeer score far more
0.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Al Shamal II, against 1.42 over 36 for Al Mesaimeer.
-
Al Shamal II concede fewer
Al Shamal II concede 0.00 a game, Al Mesaimeer 1.56.
-
Al Mesaimeer games more often go over 2.5 goals
0% of Al Shamal II matches, against 67% for Al Mesaimeer. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Mesaimeer@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1498.0
ELO
1476.1
1
ELO · Matches
36
1498.0
Current Team ELO
1476.1
1476.1
Current Opponent ELO
1498.0
21.81
Current ELO Difference
-21.81
0.53
Expected score
0.47
1
History Matches
36
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.95
Overperformance
47.56
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
1
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.00
Goals against per game
1.70
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
1
Matches
36
1.00
PPG
1.22
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
0.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
19
1.00
PPG
1.05
0.0%
Win rate
31.6%
100.0%
Draw rate
10.5%
0.0%
Loss rate
57.9%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
1
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.00
Goals for per game
1.42
0.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
0.0%
BTTS rate
61.1%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.26
0.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
68.4%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
36
0.00
Goals Mean
1.42
—
Goals Std
1.14
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.00
Goals against per game
1.56
0.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
94.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
36
0.00
Conceded Mean
1.56
—
Conceded Std
1.12
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.6%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
1
History Matches
36
0.00
Result entropy
0.97
—
Goal Difference Std
1.78
100.0
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
1
Eligible Matches
36
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.90
0
Trailing Matches
15
—
Non-loss rate
20.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
71.91
Rest days
72.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
12
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
0
Long Rest History Matches
23
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
1
Competition Season Count
6
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.03
—
Portability PPG Range
0.07
—
Portability Score
94.48
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
1
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO21.81
PPG-0.22
GF-1.42
GA-1.56
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-35
Clean-sheet rate77.8%
Failed-to-score rate77.8%
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate94.7%
Failed-to-score rate73.7%
History Matches-35
Goals Mean-1.42
Scored 1+ rate-0.78
Scored 2+ rate-0.39
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-1.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
History Matches-35
Conceded Mean-1.56
Clean-sheet rate77.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.56
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
History Matches-35
Result entropy-0.97
Stability score96.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.82
Eligible Matches-35
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches-15
Halftime Coverage Matches-35
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.69
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest History Matches-23
Current Team ELO21.81
Current Opponent ELO-21.81
Current ELO Difference43.63
Expected score0.06
History Matches-35
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al Shamal II
D
Al Shamal II1–1Muaither SC28 Oct · home
Pick: Al Shamal II 49% · missed L
Al Shamal II1–3Al-Markhiya14 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Markhiya 48% · hit L
Al Shamal II0–2Al Waab31 Aug · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed D
Al Shamal II0–0Al Kharaitiyat24 Aug · home
Pick: Al Shamal II 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Al Mesaimeer
W
Al Mesaimeer5–0Al-Gharafa B14 Oct · home
Pick: Al Mesaimeer 55% · hit L
Al Mesaimeer1–2UMM Salal30 Aug · home
Pick: Al Mesaimeer 50% · missed W
Al Mesaimeer1–0Muaither SC24 Aug · home
Pick: Muaither SC 47% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Al Shamal II and Al Mesaimeer finished 2–1 in Second Division on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Al Shamal II win 36.8%, draw 27.3%, Al Mesaimeer win 36.0%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.