ScoreProb
Copa del Rey Spain Round 128 2026

Alcoyano vs Mallorca

Alcoyano Home · Elo 1,590
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mallorca Away · Elo 1,537
Estadio El Collao, Alcoy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mallorca win
Alcoyano win
32.0%
Draw
27.7%
Mallorca winPick
40.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%
No54.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.3%
Under 2.561.7%

How much we know

Alcoyano history56 matches
Mallorca history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mallorca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Alcoyano are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,537. On rating alone Alcoyano would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Mallorca score more

    0.88 goals a game over 56 matches for Alcoyano, against 1.29 over 68 for Mallorca.

  • Alcoyano concede fewer

    Alcoyano concede 0.80 a game, Mallorca 1.24.

  • Mallorca games more often go over 2.5 goals

    29% of Alcoyano matches, against 51% for Mallorca. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alcoyano
Mallorca@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.1
ELO
1536.6
56
ELO · Matches
68
1590.1
Current Team ELO
1536.6
1536.6
Current Opponent ELO
1590.1
53.48
Current ELO Difference
-53.48
0.58
Expected score
0.42
56
History Matches
68
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
55.76
Overperformance
52.36
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
68
1.46
PPG
1.34
35.7%
Win rate
36.8%
39.3%
Draw rate
23.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
39.7%
48.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
10.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.2%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
33
1.59
PPG
0.73
40.7%
Win rate
18.2%
37.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
22.2%
Loss rate
63.6%
51.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
27
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.88
Goals for per game
1.29
53.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
30.4%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.07
Goals for per game
0.85
59.3%
Scoring rate
57.6%
33.3%
BTTS rate
45.5%
56
History Matches
68
0.88
Goals Mean
1.29
0.98
Goals Std
1.07
53.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
26.8%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
5.4%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.80
Goals against per game
1.24
46.4%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.52
44.4%
Conceding rate
81.8%
56
History Matches
68
0.80
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.08
Conceded Std
0.91
21.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
53.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
46.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
40.7%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
53.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
46.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
40.7%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
53.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.32
Goal Difference Std
1.56
1.57
Stability score
2.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
68
14
Lead Matches
21
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.76
11
Trailing Matches
22
27.3%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.10
Rest days
73.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.84
Portability PPG Std
0.76
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.94
37.42
Portability Score
39.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO53.48
PPG0.13
GF-0.42
GA-0.43
PPG0.87
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Failed-to-score rate21.4%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate37.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-2.16
Rest days10.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO53.48
Current Opponent ELO-53.48
Current ELO Difference107.0
Expected score0.15
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alcoyano

D
Alcoyano1–1Real Murcia II1 Nov · home
Pick: Alcoyano 40% · missed
L
Atlético Baleares2–0Alcoyano25 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Baleares 55% · hit
W
Mallorca II0–1Alcoyano4 Oct · away
Pick: Mallorca II 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mallorca

W
Mallorca2–1Cadiz2 Nov · home
Pick: Mallorca 48% · hit
D
Leganes1–1Mallorca24 Oct · away
Pick: Leganes 50% · missed
D
Eibar1–1Mallorca17 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar 45% · missed
D
Girona0–0Mallorca4 Oct · away
Pick: Girona 41% · missed
W
Mallorca3–0AD Ceuta FC30 Aug · home
Pick: Mallorca 53% · hit

About this match

Alcoyano and Mallorca meet in Copa del Rey on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio El Collao, Alcoy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Alcoyano win 32.0%, draw 27.7%, Mallorca win 40.3%. The pick is Mallorca win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.3%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.