ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros

Alianza Valledupar Home · Elo 1,464
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Llaneros Away · Elo 1,523
Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alianza Valledupar win
Alianza Valledupar winPick
36.2%
Draw
29.2%
Llaneros win
34.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Alianza Valledupar history64 matches
Llaneros history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 01:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Alianza Valledupar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Llaneros are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,464. On rating alone Llaneros would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Alianza Valledupar score more

    1.23 goals a game over 64 matches for Alianza Valledupar, against 1.10 over 50 for Llaneros.

  • Defences are close

    Alianza Valledupar concede 1.27 a game, Llaneros 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Alianza Valledupar matches, against 44% for Llaneros. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.0
ELO
1523.5
64
ELO · Matches
50
1464.0
Current Team ELO
1523.5
1523.5
Current Opponent ELO
1464.0
-59.49
Current ELO Difference
59.49
0.42
Expected score
0.58
64
History Matches
50
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.70
Overperformance
51.18
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
50
1.31
PPG
1.38
32.8%
Win rate
38.0%
32.8%
Draw rate
24.0%
34.4%
Loss rate
38.0%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
26.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
27
1.67
PPG
1.11
44.4%
Win rate
29.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
22.2%
Loss rate
48.1%
63.9%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
36
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.10
70.3%
Scoring rate
66.0%
48.4%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.44
Goals for per game
0.85
77.8%
Scoring rate
59.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
40.7%
0.77
Goals for per game
1.12
59.1%
Scoring rate
82.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
64
History Matches
50
1.23
Goals Mean
1.10
1.20
Goals Std
0.98
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.14
68.8%
Conceding rate
74.0%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.22
55.6%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.06
81.8%
Conceding rate
70.6%
64
History Matches
50
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.18
Conceded Std
0.94
35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.0%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.0%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
50
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.52
0.02
Stability score
1.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
49
18
Lead Matches
14
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.86
22
Trailing Matches
13
40.9%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.03
Rest days
77.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
24
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
17
0.82
PPG
1.41
13.6%
Win rate
29.4%
40.9%
Draw rate
52.9%
45.5%
Loss rate
17.6%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
29.4%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
22
Current Competition Matches
17
0.82
Current Competition PPG
1.41
-0.73
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.06
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.93
Portability PPG Range
0.95
58.65
Portability Score
54.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-59.49
PPG-0.07
GF0.13
GA0.13
PPG-0.59
PPG0.56
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate4.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches14
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-1.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate33.2%
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches5
Current Competition PPG-0.59
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.79
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score4.59
Rest days1.86
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO-59.49
Current Opponent ELO59.49
Current ELO Difference-119.0
Expected score-0.17
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alianza Valledupar

L
Independiente Medellin2–1Alianza Valledupar1 Nov · away
Pick: Independiente Medellin 54% · hit
L
Once Caldas1–0Alianza Valledupar28 Oct · away
Pick: Once Caldas 59% · hit
W
Alianza Valledupar1–0Internacional de Bogota25 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza Valledupar 46% · hit
W
Deportivo Pasto0–1Alianza Valledupar20 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 50% · missed
L
Alianza Valledupar1–5Atletico Nacional30 Aug · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 55% · hit

Llaneros

W
Llaneros3–2Junior31 Oct · home
Pick: Llaneros 38% · hit
L
Jaguares1–0Llaneros26 Oct · away
Pick: Jaguares 44% · hit
L
Llaneros0–3Deportivo Cali21 Oct · home
Pick: Llaneros 39% · missed
W
Llaneros1–0Santa Fe18 Oct · home
Pick: Santa Fe 40% · missed
L
Internacional de Bogota4–1Llaneros15 Oct · away
Pick: Internacional de Bogota 36% · hit

About this match

Alianza Valledupar and Llaneros meet in Primera A on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 01:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Alianza Valledupar win 36.2%, draw 29.2%, Llaneros win 34.6%. The pick is Alianza Valledupar win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.