ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali

America de Cali Home · Elo 1,621
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo Cali Away · Elo 1,537
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: America de Cali win
America de Cali winPick
56.8%
Draw
28.0%
Deportivo Cali win
15.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.4%
No58.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%

How much we know

America de Cali history88 matches
Deportivo Cali history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 01:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why America de Cali are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • America de Cali are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,621 against 1,537. On rating alone America de Cali would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • America de Cali score more

    1.30 goals a game over 88 matches for America de Cali, against 1.15 over 53 for Deportivo Cali.

  • America de Cali concede fewer

    America de Cali concede 0.82 a game, Deportivo Cali 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of America de Cali matches, against 36% for Deportivo Cali. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
America de Cali
Deportivo Cali
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1620.8
ELO
1537.5
88
ELO · Matches
53
1620.8
Current Team ELO
1537.5
1537.5
Current Opponent ELO
1620.8
83.29
Current ELO Difference
-83.29
0.62
Expected score
0.38
88
History Matches
53
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.97
Overperformance
53.06
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.20
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.90
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
53
1.66
PPG
1.40
44.3%
Win rate
37.7%
33.0%
Draw rate
26.4%
22.7%
Loss rate
35.8%
71.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.2%
35.2%
Over 2.5 rate
35.8%
10.2%
Over 3.5 rate
18.9%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
25
2.02
PPG
1.04
53.7%
Win rate
28.0%
41.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
4.9%
Loss rate
52.0%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
39.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
12.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
41
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.15
75.0%
Scoring rate
62.3%
44.3%
BTTS rate
39.6%
1.66
Goals for per game
1.16
85.4%
Scoring rate
56.0%
53.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.14
78.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
30.4%
BTTS rate
38.1%
88
History Matches
53
1.30
Goals Mean
1.15
1.19
Goals Std
1.19
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
35.2%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
11.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.2%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.82
Goals against per game
1.00
58.0%
Conceding rate
64.2%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.12
56.1%
Conceding rate
72.0%
0.74
Goals against per game
0.86
43.5%
Conceding rate
61.9%
88
History Matches
53
0.82
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.85
Conceded Std
0.95
20.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.4%
2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
56.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
42.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.56
3.22
Stability score
1.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
53
26
Lead Matches
17
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
13
31.6%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.09
Rest days
76.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.58
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
57
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
18
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
21
1.91
PPG
1.43
56.5%
Win rate
38.1%
21.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
21.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
23
Current Competition Matches
21
1.91
Current Competition PPG
1.43
0.78
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.29
7
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.81
0.82
Portability PPG Range
2.00
65.23
Portability Score
38.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO83.29
PPG0.26
GF0.14
GA-0.18
PPG0.48
PPG0.98
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches35
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches35
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate12.7%
Scored 2+ rate1.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches35
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches35
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score2.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.71
Eligible Matches35
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate0.2%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches35
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.48
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.54
Portability PPG Range-1.18
Portability Score26.99
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest History Matches31
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO83.29
Current Opponent ELO-83.29
Current ELO Difference166.6
Expected score0.24
History Matches35
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

America de Cali

W
America de Cali3–1Cucuta24 Oct · home
Pick: America de Cali 63% · hit
D
Bucaramanga1–1America de Cali18 Oct · away
Pick: America de Cali 38% · missed
L
America de Cali1–2Independiente Medellin12 Oct · home
Pick: America de Cali 50% · missed
W
Llaneros1–2America de Cali5 Oct · away
Pick: America de Cali 38% · hit
D
Jaguares2–2America de Cali29 Aug · away
Pick: America de Cali 44% · missed

Deportivo Cali

D
Fortaleza FC1–1Deportivo Cali25 Oct · away
Pick: Fortaleza FC 35% · missed
W
Llaneros0–3Deportivo Cali21 Oct · away
Pick: Llaneros 39% · missed
D
Deportivo Cali0–0Junior19 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Cali 45% · missed
W
Deportivo Cali2–0Águilas Doradas28 Sep · home
Pick: Deportivo Cali 48% · hit
D
Deportivo Cali1–1Bucaramanga31 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo Cali 44% · missed

About this match

America de Cali and Deportivo Cali meet in Primera A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 01:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: America de Cali win 56.8%, draw 28.0%, Deportivo Cali win 15.2%. The pick is America de Cali win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.3%. Both teams to score: 41.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.