ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Guatemala Round 19 2026

Antigua GFC vs Malacateco

Antigua GFC Home · Elo 1,566
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Malacateco Away · Elo 1,454
Estadio Pensativo, Antigua Guatemala Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Antigua GFC win
Antigua GFC winPick
71.3%
Draw
16.6%
Malacateco win
12.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Antigua GFC history83 matches
Malacateco history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.3%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Antigua GFC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Antigua GFC are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,566 against 1,454. On rating alone Antigua GFC would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Antigua GFC score more

    1.57 goals a game over 83 matches for Antigua GFC, against 1.17 over 69 for Malacateco.

  • Antigua GFC concede fewer

    Antigua GFC concede 1.16 a game, Malacateco 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Antigua GFC matches, against 43% for Malacateco. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Antigua GFC
Malacateco
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1566.2
ELO
1453.6
83
ELO · Matches
69
1566.2
Current Team ELO
1453.6
1453.6
Current Opponent ELO
1566.2
112.5
Current ELO Difference
-112.5
0.66
Expected score
0.34
83
History Matches
69
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
53.75
Overperformance
47.78
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
69
1.65
PPG
1.22
48.2%
Win rate
34.8%
20.5%
Draw rate
17.4%
31.3%
Loss rate
47.8%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
33
2.11
PPG
0.42
64.4%
Win rate
9.1%
17.8%
Draw rate
15.2%
17.8%
Loss rate
75.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
45
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.17
80.7%
Scoring rate
72.5%
49.4%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.91
Goals for per game
0.73
86.7%
Scoring rate
54.5%
46.7%
BTTS rate
48.5%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
83
History Matches
69
1.57
Goals Mean
1.17
1.33
Goals Std
1.02
80.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
48.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.2%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.33
61.4%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.82
53.3%
Conceding rate
90.9%
0.25
Goals against per game
2.20
25.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
83
History Matches
69
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.21
Conceded Std
1.13
34.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.7%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
69
0.95
Result entropy
0.93
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.51
5.32
Stability score
6.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
69
28
Lead Matches
18
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.76
15
Trailing Matches
25
20.0%
Non-loss rate
24.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.55
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.14
54
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
4
Current Competition Matches
5
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
6
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.99
Portability PPG Std
0.13
3.00
Portability PPG Range
0.30
33.54
Portability Score
79.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO112.5
PPG0.43
GF0.39
GA-0.18
PPG2.00
PPG1.69
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate37.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate8.3%
Scored 2+ rate14.9%
Scored 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches14
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score-1.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate16.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.80
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.87
Portability PPG Range2.70
Portability Score-46.44
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.40
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO112.5
Current Opponent ELO-112.5
Current ELO Difference225.1
Expected score0.31
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Antigua GFC

W
Aurora0–2Antigua GFC1 Nov · away
Pick: Antigua GFC 54% · hit
W
Antigua GFC1–0Deportivo San Pedro30 Oct · home
Pick: Antigua GFC 61% · hit
L
Comunicaciones1–0Antigua GFC25 Oct · away
Pick: Antigua GFC 61% · missed
W
Antigua GFC3–0Xelajú20 Oct · home
Pick: Antigua GFC 60% · hit
D
Guastatoya1–1Antigua GFC15 Oct · away
Pick: Antigua GFC 54% · missed

Malacateco

L
Suchitepéquez1–0Malacateco3 Nov · away
Pick: Malacateco 37% · missed
L
Malacateco0–2Aurora29 Oct · home
Pick: Malacateco 45% · missed
D
Deportivo San Pedro2–2Malacateco25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo San Pedro 47% · missed
L
Xelajú2–1Malacateco15 Oct · away
Pick: Xelajú 56% · hit
L
Aurora1–0Malacateco30 Aug · away
Pick: Aurora 51% · hit

About this match

Antigua GFC and Malacateco meet in Liga Nacional on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Pensativo, Antigua Guatemala. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Antigua GFC win 71.3%, draw 16.6%, Malacateco win 12.1%. The pick is Antigua GFC win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.