ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone G Italy Group G - 11 2026

Anzio vs Gelbison

Anzio Home · Elo 1,479
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gelbison Away · Elo 1,584
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gelbison win
Anzio win
24.9%
Draw
31.4%
Gelbison winPick
43.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

Anzio history49 matches
Gelbison history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gelbison are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gelbison are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,479. On rating alone Gelbison would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Gelbison score more

    1.10 goals a game over 49 matches for Anzio, against 1.40 over 52 for Gelbison.

  • Gelbison concede fewer

    Anzio concede 1.53 a game, Gelbison 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Anzio matches, against 46% for Gelbison. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Anzio
Gelbison
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.3
ELO
1583.5
49
ELO · Matches
52
1479.3
Current Team ELO
1583.5
1583.5
Current Opponent ELO
1479.3
-104.2
Current ELO Difference
104.2
0.35
Expected score
0.65
49
History Matches
52
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
48.50
Overperformance
55.47
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.10
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
52
1.10
PPG
1.67
26.5%
Win rate
46.2%
30.6%
Draw rate
28.8%
42.9%
Loss rate
25.0%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
44.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
1.08
PPG
1.48
25.0%
Win rate
37.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
37.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
25.9%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
69.4%
Scoring rate
78.8%
53.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.92
Goals for per game
1.33
58.3%
Scoring rate
74.1%
41.7%
BTTS rate
48.1%
49
History Matches
52
1.10
Goals Mean
1.40
0.91
Goals Std
1.06
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
34.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
0.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.15
75.5%
Conceding rate
61.5%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.22
70.8%
Conceding rate
59.3%
49
History Matches
52
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.49
Conceded Std
1.32
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.9%
22.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
52
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.62
1.92
Stability score
3.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
52
10
Lead Matches
18
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.89
15
Trailing Matches
15
6.7%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
11
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.54
Portability PPG Range
0.07
64.81
Portability Score
93.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-104.2
PPG-0.57
GF-0.30
GA0.38
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate9.5%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate15.7%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-1.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-28.52
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Current Team ELO-104.2
Current Opponent ELO104.2
Current ELO Difference-208.4
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-6.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Anzio

D
Anzio0–0Afragolese25 Oct · home
Pick: Anzio 46% · missed
D
Latte Dolce1–1Anzio18 Oct · away
Pick: Latte Dolce 42% · missed
W
Albalonga0–2Anzio4 Oct · away
Pick: Anzio 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gelbison

D
Gelbison1–1Atletico Lodigiani1 Nov · home
Pick: Gelbison 47% · missed
L
Gelbison0–1Igea Virtus28 Oct · home
Pick: Gelbison 47% · missed
L
Sarrabus Ogliastra3–0Gelbison25 Oct · away
Pick: Gelbison 47% · missed
W
Gelbison2–1Ossese18 Oct · home
Pick: Gelbison 62% · hit
L
Gelbison0–1Venafro4 Oct · home
Pick: Gelbison 62% · missed

About this match

Anzio and Gelbison meet in Serie D - Girone G on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Anzio win 24.9%, draw 31.4%, Gelbison win 43.7%. The pick is Gelbison win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.