Arenas Getxo vs Deportivo La Coruña II
Arenas Getxo
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo La Coruña II
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo La Coruña II win
Arenas Getxo win
31.9%
Draw
26.2%
Deportivo La Coruña II winPick
41.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.8%
No51.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%
How much we know
Arenas Getxo history58 matches
Deportivo La Coruña II history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Deportivo La Coruña II
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Deportivo La Coruña II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Deportivo La Coruña II are rated 102 Elo points higher
Elo 1,609 against 1,506. On rating alone Deportivo La Coruña II would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Deportivo La Coruña II score more
1.17 goals a game over 58 matches for Arenas Getxo, against 1.66 over 56 for Deportivo La Coruña II.
-
Deportivo La Coruña II concede fewer
Arenas Getxo concede 1.28 a game, Deportivo La Coruña II 0.75.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
48% of Arenas Getxo matches, against 55% for Deportivo La Coruña II. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arenas Getxo
Deportivo La Coruña II
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1506.3
ELO
1608.6
58
ELO · Matches
56
1506.3
Current Team ELO
1608.6
1608.6
Current Opponent ELO
1506.3
-102.4
Current ELO Difference
102.4
0.36
Expected score
0.64
58
History Matches
56
0.00
Residual Mean
0.09
49.68
Overperformance
57.00
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
0.90
Goals for per game
2.10
1.90
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
56
1.43
PPG
1.86
41.4%
Win rate
53.6%
19.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
39.7%
Loss rate
21.4%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
28
2.19
PPG
1.93
69.2%
Win rate
53.6%
11.5%
Draw rate
32.1%
19.2%
Loss rate
14.3%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
26
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.66
62.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
43.1%
BTTS rate
39.3%
1.81
Goals for per game
2.00
88.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.7%
BTTS rate
46.4%
58
History Matches
56
1.17
Goals Mean
1.66
1.18
Goals Std
1.41
62.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
53.6%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
26.8%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
0.75
72.4%
Conceding rate
51.8%
1.12
Goals against per game
0.82
65.4%
Conceding rate
46.4%
58
History Matches
56
1.28
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.19
Conceded Std
0.87
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.9%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
53.6%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
53.6%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.92
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.71
4.68
Stability score
7.97
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
58
Eligible Matches
56
20
Lead Matches
22
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.91
15
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.77
Rest days
91.73
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.94
28
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.78
0.60
Portability PPG Range
1.78
64.71
Portability Score
39.15
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-102.4
PPG-0.43
GF-0.49
GA0.53
PPG0.26
PPG0.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.53
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate16.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.07
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-3.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.50
Portability PPG Range-1.19
Portability Score25.56
Rest days-13.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-102.4
Current Opponent ELO102.4
Current ELO Difference-204.7
Expected score-0.29
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Arenas Getxo
W
CD Coria0–1Arenas Getxo1 Nov · away
Pick: CD Coria 41% · missed W
Arenas Getxo2–0UD Ourense24 Oct · home
Pick: Arenas Getxo 39% · hit L
Arenas Getxo0–4Mérida AD18 Oct · home
Pick: Mérida AD 39% · hit L
Cultural Leonesa4–1Arenas Getxo12 Oct · away
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 50% · hit D
Arenas Getxo1–1Racing Ferrol29 Aug · home
Pick: Arenas Getxo 40% · missed Deportivo La Coruña II
W
Zamora1–3Deportivo La Coruña II1 Nov · away
Pick: Zamora 42% · missed L
Deportivo La Coruña II0–5Extremadura 192424 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Coruña II 41% · missed L
Lugo3–0Deportivo La Coruña II17 Oct · away
Pick: Lugo 42% · hit L
UD Logroñés2–1Deportivo La Coruña II4 Oct · away
Pick: UD Logroñés 48% · hit L
Mérida AD1–0Deportivo La Coruña II29 Aug · away
Pick: Mérida AD 41% · hit About this match
Arenas Getxo and Deportivo La Coruña II meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Fadura, Getxo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Arenas Getxo win 31.9%, draw 26.2%, Deportivo La Coruña II win 41.8%. The pick is Deportivo La Coruña II win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.8%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.