ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Aretxabaleta vs Aurrerá Vitoria

Aretxabaleta Home · Elo 1,450
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aurrerá Vitoria Away · Elo 1,525
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aretxabaleta win
Aretxabaleta winPick
42.5%
Draw
23.0%
Aurrerá Vitoria win
34.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.7%
No49.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%

How much we know

Aretxabaleta history47 matches
Aurrerá Vitoria history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Aretxabaleta are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aurrerá Vitoria are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,525 against 1,450. On rating alone Aurrerá Vitoria would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Aretxabaleta score more

    1.45 goals a game over 47 matches for Aretxabaleta, against 1.18 over 33 for Aurrerá Vitoria.

  • Aurrerá Vitoria concede fewer

    Aretxabaleta concede 1.79 a game, Aurrerá Vitoria 1.18.

  • Aretxabaleta games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Aretxabaleta matches, against 48% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aretxabaleta
Aurrerá Vitoria
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1450.4
ELO
1524.8
47
ELO · Matches
33
1450.4
Current Team ELO
1524.8
1524.8
Current Opponent ELO
1450.4
-74.47
Current ELO Difference
74.47
0.39
Expected score
0.61
47
History Matches
33
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
46.50
Overperformance
52.08
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
33
1.15
PPG
1.58
31.9%
Win rate
45.5%
19.1%
Draw rate
21.2%
48.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
87.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
17
1.67
PPG
1.65
45.8%
Win rate
47.1%
29.2%
Draw rate
23.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
29.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
24
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
1.18
74.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.0%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.06
83.3%
Scoring rate
70.6%
70.8%
BTTS rate
41.2%
47
History Matches
33
1.45
Goals Mean
1.18
1.30
Goals Std
1.17
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.79
Goals against per game
1.18
87.2%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.29
83.3%
Conceding rate
58.8%
47
History Matches
33
1.79
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.24
Conceded Std
1.24
55.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.2%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
33
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.84
6.18
Stability score
4.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
33
10
Lead Matches
12
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.89
19
Trailing Matches
6
21.1%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
25
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.26
Portability PPG Std
—
0.51
Portability PPG Range
—
66.12
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-74.47
PPG-0.43
GF0.26
GA0.61
PPG0.02
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate9.2%
Scored 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate28.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score2.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.20
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate4.4%
Trailing Win Rate15.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO-74.47
Current Opponent ELO74.47
Current ELO Difference-148.9
Expected score-0.21
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aretxabaleta

L
Aretxabaleta0–2Eibar III25 Oct · home
Pick: Eibar III 39% · hit
W
R. Union B0–2Aretxabaleta18 Oct · away
Pick: R. Union B 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aurrerá Vitoria

L
San Ignacio5–0Aurrerá Vitoria24 Oct · away
Pick: San Ignacio 53% · hit
W
Aurrerá Vitoria2–0Real Sociedad III17 Oct · home
Pick: Aurrerá Vitoria 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aretxabaleta and Aurrerá Vitoria meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Aretxabaleta win 42.5%, draw 23.0%, Aurrerá Vitoria win 34.5%. The pick is Aretxabaleta win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 50.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.