ScoreProb
Championnat National Benin Round 7 2026

AS Sobemap vs Dragons

AS Sobemap Home · Elo 1,568
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dragons Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AS Sobemap win
AS Sobemap winPick
38.8%
Draw
37.6%
Dragons win
23.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.1%
No56.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.8%
Under 2.564.2%

How much we know

AS Sobemap history36 matches
Dragons history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why AS Sobemap are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AS Sobemap are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,477. On rating alone AS Sobemap would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.94 goals a game over 36 matches for AS Sobemap, against 1.00 over 36 for Dragons.

  • AS Sobemap concede fewer

    AS Sobemap concede 0.72 a game, Dragons 1.36.

  • Dragons games more often go over 2.5 goals

    28% of AS Sobemap matches, against 36% for Dragons. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AS Sobemap
Dragons
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.4
ELO
1476.8
36
ELO · Matches
36
1568.4
Current Team ELO
1476.8
1476.8
Current Opponent ELO
1568.4
91.65
Current ELO Difference
-91.65
0.63
Expected score
0.37
36
History Matches
36
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.05
56.07
Overperformance
46.69
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.60
0.90
Goals for per game
0.70
0.70
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
36
1.75
PPG
1.11
52.8%
Win rate
27.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
27.8%
30.6%
Loss rate
44.4%
36.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.1%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
22
2.00
PPG
0.86
61.1%
Win rate
18.2%
16.7%
Draw rate
31.8%
22.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
38.9%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.03
18
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.94
Goals for per game
1.00
63.9%
Scoring rate
69.4%
25.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.82
72.2%
Scoring rate
72.7%
27.8%
BTTS rate
63.6%
36
History Matches
36
0.94
Goals Mean
1.00
0.85
Goals Std
0.91
63.9%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
27.8%
Scored 2+ rate
19.4%
2.8%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.72
Goals against per game
1.36
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.61
Goals against per game
1.32
44.4%
Conceding rate
86.4%
36
History Matches
36
0.72
Conceded Mean
1.36
0.96
Conceded Std
0.95
11.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.9%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
36
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.29
Goal Difference Std
1.27
9.14
Stability score
2.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
16
5
Lead Matches
3
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
141.0
Rest days
141.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
14
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.63
Portability PPG Range
0.82
61.54
Portability Score
55.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO91.65
PPG0.64
GF-0.06
GA-0.64
PPG1.14
PPG1.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate41.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.64
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score6.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score6.45
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.67
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO91.65
Current Opponent ELO-91.65
Current ELO Difference183.3
Expected score0.26
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance9.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AS Sobemap

D
Kraké1–1AS Sobemap31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 44% · hit
W
Cavaliers0–2AS Sobemap24 Oct · away
Pick: Cavaliers 41% · missed
D
AS Sobemap0–0Panthères18 Oct · home
Pick: AS Sobemap 55% · missed
D
AS Sobemap1–1Hodio4 Oct · home
Pick: AS Sobemap 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dragons

L
Dragons0–1Hodio1 Nov · home
Pick: Hodio 37% · hit
D
Dragons0–0ASPAC24 Oct · home
Pick: ASPAC 42% · missed
L
Kraké2–0Dragons18 Oct · away
Pick: Kraké 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AS Sobemap and Dragons meet in Championnat National on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: AS Sobemap win 38.8%, draw 37.6%, Dragons win 23.6%. The pick is AS Sobemap win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.8%. Both teams to score: 43.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.