ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense

Athletic Club Home · Elo 1,522
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atletico Goianiense Away · Elo 1,558
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Athletic Club win
Athletic Club winPick
36.6%
Draw
31.2%
Atletico Goianiense win
32.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.9%
Under 2.562.1%

How much we know

Athletic Club history61 matches
Atletico Goianiense history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Athletic Club are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atletico Goianiense are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,522. On rating alone Atletico Goianiense would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.08 goals a game over 61 matches for Athletic Club, against 1.05 over 75 for Atletico Goianiense.

  • Atletico Goianiense concede fewer

    Athletic Club concede 1.16 a game, Atletico Goianiense 0.85.

  • Athletic Club games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Athletic Club matches, against 28% for Atletico Goianiense. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Athletic Club
Atletico Goianiense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.5
ELO
1557.9
61
ELO · Matches
75
1521.5
Current Team ELO
1557.9
1557.9
Current Opponent ELO
1521.5
-36.31
Current ELO Difference
36.31
0.45
Expected score
0.55
61
History Matches
75
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.31
Overperformance
53.32
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.00
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
75
1.28
PPG
1.44
31.1%
Win rate
34.7%
34.4%
Draw rate
40.0%
34.4%
Loss rate
25.3%
72.1%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
37.7%
Over 2.5 rate
28.0%
16.4%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
36
1.30
PPG
1.11
33.3%
Win rate
22.2%
30.0%
Draw rate
44.4%
36.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
30
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.05
65.6%
Scoring rate
65.3%
52.5%
BTTS rate
38.7%
1.10
Goals for per game
0.89
70.0%
Scoring rate
58.3%
53.3%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.05
70.0%
Scoring rate
65.0%
55.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
61
History Matches
75
1.08
Goals Mean
1.05
1.03
Goals Std
1.01
65.6%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
31.1%
Scored 2+ rate
29.3%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
8.0%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
0.85
77.0%
Conceding rate
54.7%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.90
Goals against per game
0.85
70.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
61
History Matches
75
1.16
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.01
Conceded Std
0.96
23.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.3%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
75
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.34
0.10
Stability score
1.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
75
17
Lead Matches
23
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.78
14
Trailing Matches
15
42.9%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.85
Rest days
74.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.43
30
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
28
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.50
PPG
1.50
35.0%
Win rate
35.0%
45.0%
Draw rate
45.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.90
Portability PPG Range
0.33
60.30
Portability Score
80.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.31
PPG-0.16
GF0.03
GA0.31
PPG0.00
PPG0.19
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate0.2%
Scored 2+ rate1.8%
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate1.6%
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-14
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-1.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.10
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-19.87
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-36.31
Current Opponent ELO36.31
Current ELO Difference-72.63
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-2.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Athletic Club

W
Athletic Club2–1Ceara2 Nov · home
Pick: Athletic Club 41% · hit
L
Operario-PR1–0Athletic Club23 Oct · away
Pick: Operario-PR 46% · hit
D
Avai0–0Athletic Club18 Oct · away
Pick: Avai 45% · missed
D
Athletic Club2–2Londrina13 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Club 47% · missed
L
Goias2–1Athletic Club6 Oct · away
Pick: Goias 45% · hit

Atletico Goianiense

D
Fortaleza EC0–0Atletico Goianiense2 Nov · away
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · missed
L
Atletico Goianiense0–1Novorizontino24 Oct · home
Pick: Novorizontino 34% · hit
D
Ponte Preta1–1Atletico Goianiense16 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Goianiense 61% · missed
L
CRB3–1Atletico Goianiense7 Oct · away
Pick: CRB 50% · hit
W
Avai0–1Atletico Goianiense30 Aug · away
Pick: Avai 43% · missed

About this match

Athletic Club and Atletico Goianiense meet in Serie B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Athletic Club win 36.6%, draw 31.2%, Atletico Goianiense win 32.2%. The pick is Athletic Club win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.9%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.