ScoreProb
Liga MX U21 Mexico Round 16 2026

Atlas U21 vs Pachuca U21

Atlas U21 Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pachuca U21 Away · Elo 1,542
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlas U21 win
Atlas U21 winPick
36.1%
Draw
30.4%
Pachuca U21 win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Atlas U21 history28 matches
Pachuca U21 history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Atlas U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pachuca U21 are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,542 against 1,484. On rating alone Pachuca U21 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Pachuca U21 score far more

    1.07 goals a game over 28 matches for Atlas U21, against 1.67 over 30 for Pachuca U21.

  • Pachuca U21 concede fewer

    Atlas U21 concede 1.32 a game, Pachuca U21 0.97.

  • Pachuca U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Atlas U21 matches, against 63% for Pachuca U21. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlas U21
Pachuca U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.9
ELO
1541.8
28
ELO · Matches
30
1483.9
Current Team ELO
1541.8
1541.8
Current Opponent ELO
1483.9
-57.90
Current ELO Difference
57.90
0.42
Expected score
0.58
28
History Matches
30
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
48.33
Overperformance
54.10
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
28
Matches
30
1.32
PPG
1.63
39.3%
Win rate
43.3%
14.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
46.4%
Loss rate
23.3%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
10.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
15
2.07
PPG
1.67
64.3%
Win rate
40.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
46.7%
21.4%
Loss rate
13.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
14
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.67
64.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
46.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.67
85.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
53.3%
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
40.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
28
History Matches
30
1.07
Goals Mean
1.67
0.92
Goals Std
1.25
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
39.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
3.6%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
0.97
78.6%
Conceding rate
56.7%
0.79
Goals against per game
0.93
71.4%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
28
History Matches
30
1.32
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.20
Conceded Std
1.02
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
28
History Matches
30
0.91
Result entropy
0.97
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.73
8.86
Stability score
2.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
29
8
Lead Matches
11
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.88
10
Trailing Matches
6
40.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
30.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
8
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.63
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.20
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.52
71.88
Portability Score
65.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
28
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-57.90
PPG-0.31
GF-0.60
GA0.35
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate15.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.60
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score6.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate30.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score6.09
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Current Team ELO-57.90
Current Opponent ELO57.90
Current ELO Difference-115.8
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-5.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlas U21

L
Atl. San Luis U214–1Atlas U2130 Oct · away
Pick: Atl. San Luis U21 50% · hit
L
Atlas U211–2Puebla U2125 Oct · home
Pick: Atlas U21 38% · missed
W
Necaxa U211–2Atlas U2116 Oct · away
Pick: Necaxa U21 37% · missed
W
Atlas U212–0Queretaro U2129 Aug · home
Pick: Atlas U21 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pachuca U21

W
Pachuca U212–1Tigres UANL U2131 Oct · home
Pick: Pachuca U21 60% · hit
L
Club America U212–1Pachuca U2125 Oct · away
Pick: Club America U21 44% · hit
W
Pachuca U213–1Cruz Azul U2121 Oct · home
Pick: Pachuca U21 43% · hit
L
Monterrey U212–0Pachuca U2118 Oct · away
Pick: Monterrey U21 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlas U21 and Pachuca U21 meet in Liga MX U21 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atlas U21 win 36.1%, draw 30.4%, Pachuca U21 win 33.6%. The pick is Atlas U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.