Atlético Mineiro U20 vs Santa Cruz AC U20
Atlético Mineiro U20
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santa Cruz AC U20
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Mineiro U20 win
Atlético Mineiro U20 winPick
60.8%
Draw
20.3%
Santa Cruz AC U20 win
18.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes41.6%
No58.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%
How much we know
Atlético Mineiro U20 history63 matches
Santa Cruz AC U20 history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Atlético Mineiro U20
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Atlético Mineiro U20 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Atlético Mineiro U20 are rated 102 Elo points higher
Elo 1,594 against 1,492. On rating alone Atlético Mineiro U20 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Atlético Mineiro U20 score far more
1.97 goals a game over 63 matches for Atlético Mineiro U20, against 0.00 over 1 for Santa Cruz AC U20.
-
Santa Cruz AC U20 concede fewer
Atlético Mineiro U20 concede 1.33 a game, Santa Cruz AC U20 1.00.
-
Atlético Mineiro U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals
63% of Atlético Mineiro U20 matches, against 0% for Santa Cruz AC U20. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Mineiro U20
Santa Cruz AC U20
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1594.2
ELO
1491.8
63
ELO · Matches
1
1594.2
Current Team ELO
1491.8
1491.8
Current Opponent ELO
1594.2
102.4
Current ELO Difference
-102.4
0.64
Expected score
0.36
63
History Matches
1
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.50
55.61
Overperformance
47.62
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.50
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
0.00
2.20
Goals for per game
0.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
1.90
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
63
Matches
1
1.63
PPG
0.00
47.6%
Win rate
0.0%
20.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
31.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
87.3%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
63.5%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
1
2.13
PPG
0.00
61.3%
Win rate
0.0%
29.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
9.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
31
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.97
Goals for per game
0.00
82.5%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
2.42
Goals for per game
0.00
90.3%
Scoring rate
0.0%
48.4%
BTTS rate
0.0%
63
History Matches
1
1.97
Goals Mean
0.00
1.71
Goals Std
—
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
52.4%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.42
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
65.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
51.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
1
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.18
Conceded Std
—
46.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
63
History Matches
1
0.95
Result entropy
0.00
2.30
Goal Difference Std
—
5.04
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
61
Eligible Matches
1
26
Lead Matches
0
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.87
Lead Points Retention
—
21
Trailing Matches
0
28.6%
Non-loss rate
—
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.00
Rest days
378.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.30
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Long Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
1
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.41
Portability PPG Std
—
1.20
Portability PPG Range
—
55.09
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
63
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO102.4
PPG1.63
GF1.97
GA0.33
PPG2.13
PPG2.00
PPG1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches62
Clean-sheet rate34.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.83
History Matches30
Clean-sheet rate48.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.90
History Matches62
Goals Mean1.97
Scored 1+ rate82.5%
Scored 2+ rate52.4%
Scored 3+ rate33.3%
Venue Goals Mean2.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.80
History Matches62
Conceded Mean0.33
Clean-sheet rate34.9%
Conceded 2+ rate46.0%
Conceded 3+ rate20.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
History Matches62
Result entropy0.95
Stability score-94.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.82
Eligible Matches60
Lead Matches26
Trailing Matches21
Halftime Coverage Matches60
First Half Goals For Mean0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count6
Rest days-306.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest History Matches28
Long Rest History Matches24
Current Team ELO102.4
Current Opponent ELO-102.4
Current ELO Difference204.8
Expected score0.29
History Matches62
Residual Mean0.57
Overperformance7.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.60
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Atlético Mineiro U20
D
Santa Cruz AC U201–1Atlético Mineiro U2030 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Mineiro U20 45% · missed D
Cruzeiro U201–1Atlético Mineiro U2026 Oct · away
Pick: Cruzeiro U20 46% · missed W
Atlético Mineiro U202–0Amazonas U2022 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Mineiro U20 65% · hit W
Atlético Mineiro U204–3Cruzeiro U2019 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Mineiro U20 49% · hit W
Atlético Mineiro U202–1Athletic Club MG U208 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Mineiro U20 65% · hit Santa Cruz AC U20
D
Santa Cruz AC U201–1Atlético Mineiro U2030 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Mineiro U20 45% · missed W
São Raimundo RR U201–5Santa Cruz AC U2021 Oct · away
Pick: São Raimundo RR U20 43% · missed L
Amazonas U204–1Santa Cruz AC U207 Oct · away
Pick: Amazonas U20 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Atlético Mineiro U20 and Santa Cruz AC U20 meet in Copa do Brasil U20 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Atlético Mineiro U20 win 60.8%, draw 20.3%, Santa Cruz AC U20 win 18.8%. The pick is Atlético Mineiro U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 41.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.