ScoreProb
Primera División Uruguay Round 14 2026

Atletico Torque vs Racing Montevideo

Atletico Torque Home · Elo 1,570
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Racing Montevideo Away · Elo 1,547
Estadio Centenario, Montevideo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico Torque win
Atletico Torque winPick
36.8%
Draw
30.1%
Racing Montevideo win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Atletico Torque history59 matches
Racing Montevideo history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.

Why Atletico Torque are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,570 against 1,547. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Atletico Torque score more

    1.56 goals a game over 59 matches for Atletico Torque, against 1.10 over 69 for Racing Montevideo.

  • Racing Montevideo concede fewer

    Atletico Torque concede 1.29 a game, Racing Montevideo 1.00.

  • Atletico Torque games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Atletico Torque matches, against 35% for Racing Montevideo. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1570.0
ELO
1547.2
59
ELO · Matches
69
1570.0
Current Team ELO
1547.2
1547.2
Current Opponent ELO
1570.0
22.80
Current ELO Difference
-22.80
0.53
Expected score
0.47
59
History Matches
69
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.56
Overperformance
53.40
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.50
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
69
1.54
PPG
1.46
44.1%
Win rate
37.7%
22.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.9%
Loss rate
29.0%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
59.4%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
32.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.50
PPG
1.45
43.3%
Win rate
38.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.0%
36.7%
Loss rate
32.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
38.7%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.10
84.7%
Scoring rate
68.1%
59.3%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.03
83.3%
Scoring rate
58.1%
60.0%
BTTS rate
38.7%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.22
84.2%
Scoring rate
78.3%
63.2%
BTTS rate
43.5%
59
History Matches
69
1.56
Goals Mean
1.10
1.17
Goals Std
1.02
84.7%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.0%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.1%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.00
69.5%
Conceding rate
63.8%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
73.3%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.11
Goals against per game
0.74
78.9%
Conceding rate
52.2%
59
History Matches
69
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.22
Conceded Std
1.08
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.7%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
15.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
15.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
69
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.49
3.41
Stability score
0.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
69
14
Lead Matches
22
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.74
18
Trailing Matches
11
27.8%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.08
Rest days
82.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
27
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
23
1.79
PPG
1.83
52.6%
Win rate
47.8%
21.1%
Draw rate
39.1%
26.3%
Loss rate
13.0%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
26.1%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
19
Current Competition Matches
23
1.79
Current Competition PPG
1.83
0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.48
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.54
Portability PPG Range
1.66
47.61
Portability Score
45.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO22.80
PPG0.08
GF0.46
GA0.29
PPG-0.04
PPG0.05
PPG0.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate16.6%
Scored 2+ rate16.8%
Scored 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score2.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.90
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate14.9%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG-0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.05
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score2.33
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO22.80
Current Opponent ELO-22.80
Current ELO Difference45.61
Expected score0.07
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico Torque

W
Libertad San Carlos0–6Atletico Torque6 Nov · away
Pick: Atletico Torque 36% · hit
W
Boston River1–2Atletico Torque1 Nov · away
Pick: Boston River 42% · missed
W
Penarol0–2Atletico Torque27 Oct · away
Pick: Penarol 55% · missed
W
Atletico Torque3–1Cerro25 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Torque 69% · hit
W
Atletico Torque2–0Atletico-MG21 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Torque 35% · hit

Racing Montevideo

W
Racing Montevideo3–1Cerro Largo31 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Montevideo 50% · hit
D
Defensor Sporting3–3Racing Montevideo24 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Montevideo 39% · missed
W
Racing Montevideo3–0Wanderers17 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Montevideo 54% · hit
L
Racing Montevideo0–1Penarol4 Oct · home
Pick: Penarol 34% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atletico Torque and Racing Montevideo meet in Primera División on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Atletico Torque win 36.8%, draw 30.1%, Racing Montevideo win 33.1%. The pick is Atletico Torque win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.