ScoreProb
Bundesliga Austria Round 12 2026

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK

Austria Lustenau Home · Elo 1,576
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grazer AK Away · Elo 1,496
Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Austria Lustenau win
Austria Lustenau winPick
63.1%
Draw
19.7%
Grazer AK win
17.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Austria Lustenau history64 matches
Grazer AK history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Austria Lustenau are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Austria Lustenau are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,496. On rating alone Austria Lustenau would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.25 goals a game over 64 matches for Austria Lustenau, against 1.21 over 66 for Grazer AK.

  • Austria Lustenau concede fewer

    Austria Lustenau concede 1.03 a game, Grazer AK 1.47.

  • Grazer AK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Austria Lustenau matches, against 53% for Grazer AK. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Austria Lustenau
Grazer AK@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1575.7
ELO
1495.5
64
ELO · Matches
66
1575.7
Current Team ELO
1495.5
1495.5
Current Opponent ELO
1575.7
80.15
Current ELO Difference
-80.15
0.61
Expected score
0.39
64
History Matches
66
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
55.60
Overperformance
50.05
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
0.80
Goals against per game
2.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.42
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
66
1.64
PPG
1.17
46.9%
Win rate
28.8%
23.4%
Draw rate
30.3%
29.7%
Loss rate
40.9%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.0%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
32
1.84
PPG
0.81
54.1%
Win rate
18.8%
21.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
24.3%
Loss rate
56.3%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
13.5%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
37
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.21
70.3%
Scoring rate
65.2%
42.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.41
Goals for per game
0.97
70.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
40.5%
BTTS rate
40.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
64
History Matches
66
1.25
Goals Mean
1.21
1.10
Goals Std
1.24
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
65.2%
35.9%
Scored 2+ rate
34.8%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.47
62.5%
Conceding rate
77.3%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.69
56.8%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.25
Goals against per game
3.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
66
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.12
Conceded Std
1.44
26.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
66
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.70
Goal Difference Std
2.13
3.90
Stability score
1.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
65
15
Lead Matches
12
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
1.00
16
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.34
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.75
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.18
1.05
Portability PPG Range
0.45
54.25
Portability Score
73.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO80.15
PPG0.47
GF0.04
GA-0.44
PPG0.50
PPG1.03
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate27.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate5.2%
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.70
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.82
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score2.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.43
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-19.70
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.60
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.63
Current Team ELO80.15
Current Opponent ELO-80.15
Current ELO Difference160.3
Expected score0.23
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Austria Lustenau

L
Red Bull Salzburg5–1Austria Lustenau1 Nov · away
Pick: Red Bull Salzburg 64% · hit
W
Austria Lustenau3–2Sturm Graz29 Oct · home
Pick: Sturm Graz 46% · missed
L
Rapid Vienna5–1Austria Lustenau24 Oct · away
Pick: Rapid Vienna 69% · hit
L
Austria Lustenau0–4Lask Linz17 Oct · home
Pick: Lask Linz 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Grazer AK

L
Grazer AK0–4TSV Hartberg30 Oct · home
Pick: TSV Hartberg 53% · hit
L
Grazer AK0–4SCR Altach27 Oct · home
Pick: Grazer AK 41% · missed
D
WSG Wattens1–1Grazer AK24 Oct · away
Pick: WSG Wattens 64% · missed
L
Sturm Graz6–1Grazer AK18 Oct · away
Pick: Sturm Graz 72% · hit
D
Grazer AK0–0Wolfsberger AC29 Aug · home
Pick: Wolfsberger AC 59% · missed

About this match

Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK meet in Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Austria Lustenau win 63.1%, draw 19.7%, Grazer AK win 17.2%. The pick is Austria Lustenau win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.