ScoreProb
Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Barendrecht vs Quick Boys

Barendrecht Home · Elo 1,488
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Quick Boys Away · Elo 1,629
Sports Centre de Bongerd Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Quick Boys win
Barendrecht win
15.0%
Draw
18.2%
Quick Boys winPick
66.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.8%
No37.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.6%
Under 2.530.4%

How much we know

Barendrecht history55 matches
Quick Boys history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Quick Boys are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Quick Boys are rated 141 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,488. On rating alone Quick Boys would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Quick Boys score more

    1.69 goals a game over 55 matches for Barendrecht, against 2.07 over 59 for Quick Boys.

  • Quick Boys concede fewer

    Barendrecht concede 2.16 a game, Quick Boys 1.07.

  • Barendrecht games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Barendrecht matches, against 61% for Quick Boys. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barendrecht
Quick Boys
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.0
ELO
1628.9
55
ELO · Matches
59
1488.0
Current Team ELO
1628.9
1628.9
Current Opponent ELO
1488.0
-140.9
Current ELO Difference
140.9
0.31
Expected score
0.69
55
History Matches
59
0.00
Residual Mean
0.10
49.69
Overperformance
57.79
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.20
1.50
Goals for per game
2.40
2.70
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.59
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
59
1.25
PPG
2.05
36.4%
Win rate
62.7%
16.4%
Draw rate
16.9%
47.3%
Loss rate
20.3%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.7%
78.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.0%
52.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.6%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
30
1.34
PPG
2.10
41.4%
Win rate
63.3%
10.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
48.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
96.6%
Over 1.5 rate
96.7%
86.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
62.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
29
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.69
Goals for per game
2.07
76.4%
Scoring rate
89.8%
70.9%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.97
Goals for per game
2.17
82.8%
Scoring rate
96.7%
75.9%
BTTS rate
73.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
59
1.69
Goals Mean
2.07
1.40
Goals Std
1.49
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
89.8%
50.9%
Scored 2+ rate
55.9%
23.6%
Scored 3+ rate
32.2%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
2.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.16
Goals against per game
1.07
90.9%
Conceding rate
67.8%
2.17
Goals against per game
1.17
93.1%
Conceding rate
76.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
59
2.16
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.58
Conceded Std
1.02
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.4%
34.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
2.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
10.2%
6.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
3.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
10.2%
6.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
3.3%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
59
0.93
Result entropy
0.84
2.35
Goal Difference Std
1.97
7.32
Stability score
16.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
57
17
Lead Matches
29
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
89.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
8
26.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.16
1.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.08
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.73
0.93
Portability PPG Range
2.00
55.55
Portability Score
40.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-140.9
PPG-0.80
GF-0.38
GA1.10
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.76
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate13.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate13.9%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean1.10
Conceded Std0.56
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate34.6%
Conceded 3+ rate24.4%
Venue Conceded Mean1.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-9.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.71
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score14.87
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Current Team ELO-140.9
Current Opponent ELO140.9
Current ELO Difference-281.8
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barendrecht

W
Kozakken Boys0–1Barendrecht24 Oct · away
Pick: Kozakken Boys 54% · missed
W
Barendrecht4–1AFC Amsterdam17 Oct · home
Pick: Barendrecht 42% · hit
L
Barendrecht0–2Katwijk29 Aug · home
Pick: Barendrecht 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Quick Boys

W
Quick Boys4–0Eemdijk28 Oct · home
Pick: Quick Boys 62% · hit
W
Quick Boys3–1Hoek24 Oct · home
Pick: Quick Boys 60% · hit
D
Spakenburg1–1Quick Boys17 Oct · away
Pick: Quick Boys 53% · missed
W
Quick Boys4–0Kloetinge29 Aug · home
Pick: Quick Boys 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Barendrecht and Quick Boys meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sports Centre de Bongerd. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Barendrecht win 15.0%, draw 18.2%, Quick Boys win 66.8%. The pick is Quick Boys win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.6%. Both teams to score: 62.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.