Bars vs Muras United
What we said before kickoff Result: Bars win
Bars win Result
34.2%
Draw
27.7%
Muras United winPick
38.1%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickMuras United win · 38.1%
What happenedBars win · we gave it 34.2%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 58.2%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 58.3%
What happenedNo · 2–0
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Bars win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
34%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.9
on average A pick at 38% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalN. Mekic
73' GoalA. Sanchez
90+6' Both teams to score
Yes58.3%
No41.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%
How much we know
Bars history47 matches
Muras United history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full time: 2–0None of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.5 Nov · 03:19 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.
Why Muras United are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,621 against 1,629. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.28 goals a game over 47 matches for Bars, against 2.13 over 55 for Muras United.
-
Muras United concede fewer
Bars concede 1.19 a game, Muras United 0.95.
-
Bars games more often go over 2.5 goals
68% of Bars matches, against 58% for Muras United. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Muras United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1621.5
ELO
1629.1
47
ELO · Matches
55
1621.5
Current Team ELO
1629.1
1629.1
Current Opponent ELO
1621.5
-7.60
Current ELO Difference
7.60
0.49
Expected score
0.51
47
History Matches
55
0.11
Residual Mean
0.11
57.59
Overperformance
57.85
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
3.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.61
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.04
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals 90
47
Matches
55
2.13
PPG
2.13
66.0%
Win rate
63.6%
14.9%
Draw rate
21.8%
19.1%
Loss rate
14.5%
89.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.6%
68.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.2%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
29
2.63
PPG
2.03
84.2%
Win rate
62.1%
10.5%
Draw rate
17.2%
5.3%
Loss rate
20.7%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
19
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.28
Goals for per game
2.13
93.6%
Scoring rate
87.3%
68.1%
BTTS rate
58.2%
2.95
Goals for per game
1.90
94.7%
Scoring rate
79.3%
57.9%
BTTS rate
48.3%
2.70
Goals for per game
2.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
90.0%
90.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
47
History Matches
55
2.28
Goals Mean
2.13
1.62
Goals Std
1.56
93.6%
Scored 1+ rate
87.3%
66.0%
Scored 2+ rate
58.2%
29.8%
Scored 3+ rate
36.4%
2.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.19
Goals against per game
0.95
74.5%
Conceding rate
65.5%
0.89
Goals against per game
0.90
63.2%
Conceding rate
62.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.85
90.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
47
History Matches
55
1.19
Conceded Mean
0.95
0.96
Conceded Std
0.92
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.3%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
0.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
6.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.7%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
6.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.7%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
47
History Matches
55
0.80
Result entropy
0.82
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.79
20.39
Stability score
18.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
53
23
Lead Matches
26
95.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.90
9
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.96
Rest days
72.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
18
Normal Rest History Matches
31
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.32
27
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals 170
20
Matches
20
2.00
PPG
2.15
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
35.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
5.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
90.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
55.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
20
Current Competition Matches
20
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.15
1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.35
3
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.53
71.43
Portability Score
69.79
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
47
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-7.60
PPG0.00
GF0.15
GA0.25
PPG-0.15
PPG0.60
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate6.3%
Scored 2+ rate7.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score2.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate11.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.15
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score1.64
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO-7.60
Current Opponent ELO7.60
Current ELO Difference-15.20
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bars
W
Bars3–0Toktogul27 Oct · home
Pick: Bars 74% · hit W
Ozgon1–3Bars12 Oct · away
Pick: Bars 40% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Muras United
L
Muras United0–2Ozgon31 Oct · home
Pick: Muras United 61% · missed W
Muras United1–0Abdish-Ata27 Oct · home
Pick: Muras United 75% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Bars and Muras United finished 2–0 in Premier League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Bars win 34.2%, draw 27.7%, Muras United win 38.1%. None of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.