ScoreProb
Super League China Round 30 2026

Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Beijing Guoan Home · Elo 1,617
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chongqing Tongliang Long Away · Elo 1,536
Beijing Workers' Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Beijing Guoan win
Beijing Guoan winPick
59.1%
Draw
20.3%
Chongqing Tongliang Long win
20.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%

How much we know

Beijing Guoan history68 matches
Chongqing Tongliang Long history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Beijing Guoan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Beijing Guoan are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,617 against 1,536. On rating alone Beijing Guoan would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Beijing Guoan score far more

    2.21 goals a game over 68 matches for Beijing Guoan, against 1.43 over 58 for Chongqing Tongliang Long.

  • Chongqing Tongliang Long concede fewer

    Beijing Guoan concede 1.38 a game, Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.07.

  • Beijing Guoan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Beijing Guoan matches, against 45% for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Beijing Guoan
Chongqing Tongliang Long
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.5
ELO
1536.5
68
ELO · Matches
58
1617.5
Current Team ELO
1536.5
1536.5
Current Opponent ELO
1617.5
81.00
Current ELO Difference
-81.00
0.61
Expected score
0.39
68
History Matches
58
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
56.31
Overperformance
52.11
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.20
3.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
0.90
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
58
1.81
PPG
1.71
51.5%
Win rate
48.3%
26.5%
Draw rate
25.9%
22.1%
Loss rate
25.9%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
44.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
29
1.94
PPG
1.72
57.6%
Win rate
51.7%
21.2%
Draw rate
17.2%
21.2%
Loss rate
31.0%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
75.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
48.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
33
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.21
Goals for per game
1.43
92.6%
Scoring rate
77.6%
63.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.45
Goals for per game
1.59
100.0%
Scoring rate
79.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
51.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.04
95.8%
Scoring rate
70.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
58
2.21
Goals Mean
1.43
1.44
Goals Std
1.16
92.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
64.7%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
33.8%
Scored 3+ rate
13.8%
2.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.07
69.1%
Conceding rate
62.1%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.28
66.7%
Conceding rate
65.5%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.17
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
68
History Matches
58
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.27
Conceded Std
1.11
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
16.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
58
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.51
6.51
Stability score
4.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
58
34
Lead Matches
16
73.5%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.85
15
Trailing Matches
12
46.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
76.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
45
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
1.71
PPG
1.25
45.8%
Win rate
29.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
37.5%
20.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.05
24
Current Competition Matches
24
1.71
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.13
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.37
Portability PPG Range
0.75
49.57
Portability Score
57.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO81.00
PPG0.10
GF0.77
GA0.31
PPG0.46
PPG0.22
PPG2.40
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.77
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate15.1%
Scored 2+ rate21.6%
Scored 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.59
Stability score2.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.46
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.79
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.62
Portability Score-7.57
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO81.00
Current Opponent ELO-81.00
Current ELO Difference162.0
Expected score0.23
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.50

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Beijing Guoan

L
Port FC7–4Beijing Guoan3 Nov · away
Pick: Port FC 37% · hit
D
Beijing Guoan2–2Jeonbuk Motors27 Oct · home
Pick: Jeonbuk Motors 41% · missed
W
Henan Jianye3–4Beijing Guoan24 Oct · away
Pick: Beijing Guoan 48% · hit
W
Beijing Guoan1–0Qingdao Youth Island18 Oct · home
Pick: Beijing Guoan 58% · hit
W
Buriram United0–1Beijing Guoan13 Oct · away
Pick: Buriram United 59% · missed

Chongqing Tongliang Long

W
Chongqing Tongliang Long2–0Qingdao Jonoon24 Oct · home
Pick: Chongqing Tongliang Long 57% · hit
D
Yunnan Yukun1–1Chongqing Tongliang Long17 Oct · away
Pick: Yunnan Yukun 48% · missed
D
Henan Jianye1–1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 Aug · away
Pick: Henan Jianye 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Beijing Workers' Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Beijing Guoan win 59.1%, draw 20.3%, Chongqing Tongliang Long win 20.6%. The pick is Beijing Guoan win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.2%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.