ScoreProb
Liga Revelação U23 Portugal Round 11 2026

Benfica U23 vs Farense U23

Benfica U23 Home · Elo 1,544
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Farense U23 Away · Elo 1,539
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Benfica U23 win
Benfica U23 winPick
38.7%
Draw
24.6%
Farense U23 win
36.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Benfica U23 history50 matches
Farense U23 history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Benfica U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,544 against 1,539. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Benfica U23 score more

    1.90 goals a game over 50 matches for Benfica U23, against 1.42 over 48 for Farense U23.

  • Farense U23 concede fewer

    Benfica U23 concede 1.40 a game, Farense U23 1.06.

  • Benfica U23 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Benfica U23 matches, against 48% for Farense U23. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Benfica U23
Farense U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.2
ELO
1538.7
50
ELO · Matches
48
1544.2
Current Team ELO
1538.7
1538.7
Current Opponent ELO
1544.2
5.50
Current ELO Difference
-5.50
0.51
Expected score
0.49
50
History Matches
48
0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
53.27
Overperformance
52.74
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
48
1.78
PPG
1.69
54.0%
Win rate
52.1%
16.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
30.0%
Loss rate
35.4%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
1.96
PPG
1.71
57.7%
Win rate
54.2%
23.1%
Draw rate
8.3%
19.2%
Loss rate
37.5%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.90
Goals for per game
1.42
86.0%
Scoring rate
72.9%
68.0%
BTTS rate
45.8%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.42
92.3%
Scoring rate
70.8%
65.4%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.90
Goals Mean
1.42
1.55
Goals Std
1.20
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.8%
26.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.06
78.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.17
69.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.06
Conceded Std
0.99
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.2%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
48
0.90
Result entropy
0.88
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.60
10.15
Stability score
11.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
48
16
Lead Matches
10
93.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
12
30.8%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.94
Rest days
75.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
1
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.40
Portability PPG Range
0.71
49.89
Portability Score
61.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO5.50
PPG0.09
GF0.48
GA0.34
PPG-2.33
PPG0.25
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate13.1%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-1.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate14.1%
Trailing Win Rate6.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.69
Portability Score-11.64
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO5.50
Current Opponent ELO-5.50
Current ELO Difference11.00
Expected score0.02
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Benfica U23

L
Sporting Braga U234–3Benfica U2323 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Braga U23 48% · hit
D
Benfica U231–1Moreirense U2319 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica U23 52% · missed
L
Penafiel U233–1Benfica U2313 Oct · away
Pick: Penafiel U23 47% · hit
L
Sporting CP U234–1Benfica U2325 Aug · away
Pick: Benfica U23 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Farense U23

L
Farense U232–3Academico Viseu U2327 Oct · home
Pick: Academico Viseu U23 38% · hit
D
Estrela U231–1Farense U2320 Oct · away
Pick: Farense U23 53% · missed
L
Farense U231–2União Leiria U2313 Oct · home
Pick: Farense U23 52% · missed
L
Santa Clara U231–0Farense U239 Sep · away
Pick: Farense U23 37% · missed
W
Farense U234–3Famalicão U231 Sep · home
Pick: Farense U23 44% · hit

About this match

Benfica U23 and Farense U23 meet in Liga Revelação U23 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Benfica U23 win 38.7%, draw 24.6%, Farense U23 win 36.6%. The pick is Benfica U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.